The U.K. Telegraph reported on October 31st that leading environmental campaigners have performed a u-turn on two key technologies they have opposed for decades by openly calling for greater use of nuclear power and genetically modified crops …
Ofcourse the Australian Environment Foundation was ahead of its time. More about the AEF here … http://aefweb.info/
To keep reading the article at On Line Opinion click here… http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=11195
ON Friday 29 October 2010, The Cairns Post reported on the recently released Climate Change Report with respect to impacts on the Far North Queensland region. One of the statements contained in the article was:
“The number of days over 35C in Cairns is expected to triple and the Gulf and Cape can expect longer drier spells interrupted by more intense rainfall.”
If we just focus on the number of days over 35C statement, then how is this qualified? The words “expected to triple” are with respect to what baseline? How is this expectation derived, from historical data or models? The historical data can easily be checked by downloading the records for Cairns from the BOM website (http://www.bom.gov.au).
The results are shown in Figure 1, Temperatures for Cairns above 35°C from 1943 to present.
The long term average number of days above 35°C is 3 per year. There have been four years in the past (1956, 1971, 1988 and 1992) when the number of days has trebled or more above the long term yearly average. It can therefore be expected that this may occur again in the future as part of the natural variation; in fact looking at the frequency of these events, Cairns is overdue for another one of these above average years. The interesting question is should this not occur for say the next 10 years, does this refute the expectation being reported in this newspaper article? Does this graph in fact support the concept that there has been a lack of evidence for warming in the Cairns region since 1996 and is the natural climate cycle in this region still operating within an historical range? Is there justification for an alternative view that the climate in Cairns may be moving into a cooling phase? As usual only time will tell.
Returning to the use of the unqualified word such as “expected”, what does this mean? There is no probability assigned to this descriptor. Yet based on the historical data a probability can be assigned to the hypothesis of a trebling of the number of days with temperatures above 35°C from the long term average for Cairns. According to the records this value is 0.06 (or a 6% chance). Ironically there is twice as much chance (14.7%) that there will be no days above 35°C.
The warmest period for Cairns shown in Figure 1 is from 1988 to 1995, and currently 2010 has reached the long term average of 3 days above 35°C. With the current La Nina pattern in effect it will be interesting to see what maximum temperatures are recorded for November and December of 2010. At this stage it is clear that the 2000’s have not shown any unprecedented warming in the Cairns region based on this maximum temperature parameter.
Dr B Basil Beamish
Senior Lecturer in Mining Engineering, School of Mechanical and Mining Engineering, The University of Queensland, Brisbane Qld 4072
The Future of the Murray Darling Basin
Dr Jennifer Marohasy | Dr John Williams | Sydney
Writer, biologist and founding member of the Australian Environment Foundation, Dr Jennifer Marohasy will debate the future of the Murray Darling Basin with commissioner of The Natural Resources Commission, Dr John Williams.
The NRC reports to the NSW Premier on a range of natural resource management issues including land, water, and biodiversity. Dr Williams is also a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.
Alarmed that public policy on environmental issues is increasingly driven by moral crusading rather than objective science, Jennifer seeks to provide a counterpoint in public debate.
Monday, 15 November, 6pm for refreshments, 6:30pm – 7:30pm – Talk including Q&A
PP McGuiness Library, Level 4, 38 Oxley Street, St Leonards, SYDNEY
Cost: Non-members – $11.00; Members – no charge. Click to register or call (02) 9438 4377.
THE Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) is slashing the budget for its network of foreign correspondence* when more than ever Australia needs to be able to accurately and continually assess its place in a rapidly changing global power dynamic.
At the same time some local ABC journalists, like Robyn Williams from the Science Show, are peddling alarmist propaganda while denigrating our best independent thinkers.*
At Senate Estimates in Canberra* last week, Senator Eric Abetz queried Managing Director, Mark Scott, on the treatment of Bob Carter by Mr Williams and in particular asked why the week Professor Carter’s new book was launched, instead of discussing the book, The Counter Consensus, the Science Show paraded a British journalist masquerading as a climate expert to attack a paper published by Professor Carter two years earlier.
[Read more…] about Eric Abetz Tackles Robyn Williams on Treatment of Bob Carter
How far can the average, white, male, polar bear swim?
PS This is an open thread, as requested by El Gordo.
The director of Murray-Darling Basin operations for SA’s Water Department, Andrew Beal, says “This is certainly the best year we’ve had in a decade in terms of flows into South Australia”. Read more here.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.
Read more