Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for October 2010

New CSIRO Climate Forecast for SE Australia Unbelievable

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On Thursday the New South Wales Government officially declared the nine-year drought ended.  The very next day the CSIRO released a report warning that the ‘current drought’ appears to be at least partly linked to ‘climate change’. 

The CSIRO report entitled ‘Climate variability and change in south-eastern Australia’ is an initiative of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative, SEACI, lead by CSIRO with input from the Bureau of Meteorology and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority. 

The report forecasts a future decline in rainfall and works from the assumption there is already long term decline. 

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‘Miracles, Media and the Murray’ on ABC TV

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Backstage at the ABC Television studios on Monday night, after the Q&A program where I appeared as a panellist, the compere, Tony Jones, complained to Tim Flannery that he didn’t adequately refute my answers to the climate change questions.    Of course, Tony could always invite me onto his Lateline program where he could ‘grill’ me himself.  

For those who missed the Q&A program on television you can watch it here:
 http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s3034998.htm

It’s entitled ‘Miracles, Media and the Murray’.   

I was disappointed the Murray issue was left until so late to be discussed.   I’ve received some comment that I went too hard on this issue, and other comment that I didn’t say enough.  

Interestingly I was invited onto Q&A specifically to discuss this issue and felt a need to at least provide the small amount of information that I did; in particular that the environment of the Lower Lakes could be dramatically improved by opening the huge steel and concrete barriers during periods of drought so that there was natural ebb and flow between the Lakes and the Southern Ocean.

For those of you wondering what was written on my tee shirt under the grey jacket, it was ‘Save the Murray: Remove the Barrages’.

Man Bites Murdoch

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Former News Limited Editor, Bruce Gutherie, will be a panellist on ABC TV’s Q&A on Monday evening.   In his new book ‘Man Bites Murdoch’ Mr Gutherie alleges a problem within the culture of News Ltd.. 

There is a problem not only within News Ltd but more generally within the mainstream media in Australia; too many journalists are advocates rather than dispassionate reports of the facts.

The News Ltd flagship, The Australian, ran a ‘Save the Murray’ campaign from 2001 until the October 2004 federal election.   During this period it was repeatedly stated that there was a need for water to be taken from irrigators to save the River from rising salinity; never mind that salinity levels had been falling for nearly twenty years and were approaching historic lows.

I documented the newspaper’s campaign in an article published by Quadrant magazine in December 2004 entitled ‘Why Save the Murray’:

“I WAS SURPRISED when I learned that the Australian was running a “Saving the Murray” campaign. I realised that journalists often fail in their quest for the truth, but I assumed that they at least subscribed to the ideal. Campaigning – organised action to achieve a particular end – is the antithesis of honest reporting.

Environmentalism is now big business and big politics. It would therefore seem important that journalists at our national daily newspaper scrutinise the actions and the media releases from politicians, environmental activists and the growing industry and research lobby, particularly on an issue as important as the Murray River. Yet they were running a campaign.

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Belief in the Truth of a Climate Theory

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I wrote these two laws down on a scrap of paper years ago. I still have the scrap of paper but not the original reference.

Harris’s First Law:

Belief in the truth of a theory is inversely proportional to the precision of the science.

Harris’s Second Law:

The creativity of a scientist is directly proportional to how much he knows, and inversely proportional to how much he believes.

We know climate science is imprecise.   Who are our most knowledgeable and also creative climate scientists?

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first posted August 04, 2005
Belief in the Truth of a Theory
Second posting May 09, 2008
Belief in the Truth of a Theory (Again)

More ABC Bias, But Anyway

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I should probably be flattered to be invited on to the popular ABC TV program Q&A as a panelist.  But why is the promo for the program next Monday advertising Tim Flannery as ‘scientist’ and me as ‘climate sceptic’?

http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/

Tony Jones could refer to us both as ‘scientists’.  Alternatively the promo could suggest Tim is an ‘alarmist’ and me the ‘denier’.

I am not even a climate sceptic… but rather sceptical of what was the consensus position on anthropogenic global warming.

Anyway, it would be good if there were a few other so-called climate change sceptics at the event…  and also some people who don’t believe more water for South Australia will necessarily solve all the environmental problems of the Murray Darling Basin.   So, I am encouraging readers of this blog to try for a place in the studio audience next Monday by applying here: http://www2b.abc.net.au/AudienceBooking/Client/AudienceRegistration.aspx
And you can send in questions via email using this link http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/ask.htm

Also, the annual Australian Environment Foundation Conference is this Saturday at Rydges in Brisbane.  Max Rheese is organising a Q&A session at the Conference dinner on Saturday night, to give me some practice in advance of Monday, October 18th.  Apparently there will be a ‘Tony Jones’ at the dinner and through him you can ask me questions.  It should be a lot of fun.  You can register here: http://aefweb.info/

Water Plan will decimate Murrumbidgee frogs

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RICE growers along the Murrumbidgee River are likely to be among the hardest hit if the federal government proceeds with its new water sharing plan. If the region loses 45 per cent of its current allocation as proposed by the Murray Darling Basin Authority, an unintended consequence will be a dramatic decline in the populations of over a dozen species of frog. These frogs have benefited from water being pooled in upper catchment areas for rice production; if the plan goes ahead more water will end up going down to South Australia and over the barrages into the Southern Ocean, to the detriment of flood plain wildlife.

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