Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for October 2010

Oh No! More Prescribed Climate Alarmism for Queensland

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LATE last week, the Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence released its second report**, which was tabled in parliament by Minister for Climate Change, Kate Jones.

The Centre receives substantial funding through the state-funded Office of Climate Change, headed by Premier Anna Bligh’s husband, Greg Withers. It is an open secret that re-election of a Queensland Labor government at the last two elections has only been achieved by pandering to phantasmagorical Green demands, which have included the creation of a climate change Office and Centre.

It is therefore no surprise that the Centre’s 2010 report adopts the same alarmist tone that is invariably favoured by Green global warming zealots, including those with PhDs. The message to Queenslanders is that unless they sell their SUVs, run their cars on ethanol, and accept a tripling in the cost of electricity and other sundry penalties, then:
• Queensland will get hotter, with rising sea-levels
• The iconic Great Barrier Reef will be destroyed
• Queensland will suffer more extreme weather events, such as cyclones and floods

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The Need for a New Theory of Climate (Part 2)

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ACCORDING to the philosopher Thomas Kuhn, a scientific theory, for example, Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is likely to be based on a particular set of experimental and theoretical techniques for matching it with what is observed in the physical world. 

The hard core of AGW theory is embodied in the law and mathematical expression described by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius over one hundred years ago.  In its original form, Arrhenius’ law states that if the quantity of carbonic acid increases in geometric progression, the augmentation of the temperature will increase nearly in arithmetic progression.   Dr Arrhenius calculated values for the absorption of infrared radiation by atmospheric carbon dioxide and speculate that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide would cause a global temperature rise of 5 – 6 °C.  

It wasn’t until 1988 that AGW captured significant political attention.  That was when climatologist James Hansen, in his testimony to US congressional committees, claimed a 4.2°C global temperature increase would result from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. 

Since then estimates have been continuously adjusted down.  

In the 1995 IPCC report, for example, a doubling of carbon dioxide was predicted to cause a 3.8 °C increase and then in 2001 a 3.5°C increase and in 2007 a 3.26°C increase.  

In 2008, twenty years after his initial influential testimony, Professor Hansen issued a statement to the effect that his central estimate of lambda was now 0.75, requiring a further reduction of the official climate sensitivity estimate by one quarter, to 2.5°C degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide. 

Even leading skeptical scientists Richard Lindzen and Roy Spencer agree to a reduced sensitivity for a doubling of carbon dioxide. 

Do all these adjustments indicate a problem with the hard core of AGW theory?
 
The late mathematician and philosopher Imre Lakatos claims that scientists who subscribe to a particular scientific theory, also known as a paradigm, will tend to work to ensure its hard core is unfalsifiable. 

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This post builds on, and synthesizes, many of the comments provided by readers at:  The Need for a new Theory of Climate (Part 1). https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/2010/10/the-need-for-a-new-theory-of-climate-part-1/?cp=all

Volcanic Eruptions and Global Temperature

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VOLCANIC eruptions have long been known to influence global climate, besides their obvious local effects. They emit large clouds of aerosols and sulphur-containing gases into the lower and upper atmospheres, affecting albedo, cloud formation and causing optical phenomena. They also cause widespread oceanic disturbance (tsunamis) which can destroy settlements large distances from the eruption.  Although there is now conclusive evidence from the satellite record of temperature effects from volcanic eruptions and from ENSO, there is, so far, no evidence of global warming from an increase in greenhouse gases.

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From Rod Kerkhoven in South Australia

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I saw this one man from Adelaide University at Milang and I asked him about these barrages and he said that if they let the sea in the caravan park would have been flooded. He mentioned something about the Surveyor General’s Office telling the Premier that hundreds of acres of land would be inundated if the sea were allowed back in.   I suppose it has risen since they put the dam things in which was in 1948… They are all slashing their paddocks early this year. In fact it gets earlier and earlier and I have been here for 20 years…  One more thing:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu0kCa61VSo

The Need for a New Theory of Climate (Part 1)

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KARL Popper and Thomas Kuhn, two great philosophers of science, agree that scientific progress involve the critical overthrow of theories and their replacement by alternative ones.  For Popper the replacement occurs following the falsification of universal statements while for Kuhn change is necessarily revolutionary, involving more than a change in the claims made and questions asked but also in the way the world is perceived and a change in the standards that are brought to bear in appraising a theory.    While these two philosophers are considered by many to propose rival accounts of science, both theories are relevant to understanding climate change science.  

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