The UK Met Office is debating what to do with its long-term and seasonal forecasting after criticism for failing to predict extreme weather. It was predicted that this winter would be warmer than average – yet it has been unusually cold. Read more here.
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About Me
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.
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From a friend visiting relatives in Scotland:
“after 9 1/2 waiting in gatwick airport, i finally made to inverness only to find that the doors to the airplane were frozen shut. then the doors to the airport itself were frozen shut…cmon! give me a break!”
For the Null Hypothesis, assume that there’s no bias in the Met’s climate models. Then we’d expect half of their temperature projections to be overestimates, and half to be underestimates. Given nine years of overestimating temperature forecasts out of the last 10, with what degree of confidence can we reject the NH? Would you believe 98%? (Binomial Theorem, aka Sign Test by statisticians)
I was in the US recently and they not only got the 7 day forecast on the button, but could actually tell me when it would rain in the city by the hour. In the UK today’s forecast is vaguely accurate, tomorrow sometimes accurate and after that, your guess is as good as theirs, and maybe better. Remeber Michael Fish’s infamous weather forecast – there will be no hurricane !