The trouble is that the uncertainty inevitably associated with the chaotic behaviour of climate works both ways. It may be impossible even in principle to substantiate a doomsday forecast, but it is also impossible to prove anything to the contrary. Read more here.
Archives for August 2009
‘Climate’ Climbs as Issue in Polls
While “Economy” is still the most important concept it has dropped in importance by a third since late last year. “Change” (climate change) had been gradually reducing in importance until last month, when it was supplanted by “Jobs”, but it has now bounced back. Read more here.
Wrong Policy on Population: A Note from Peter Ridd
LATEST statistics show that Australia’s population is growing at a rate of more than a million every three years. This growth rate is being driven primarily by record rates of immigration and a relative young population, itself a product of rapid past immigration. Doubtless Peter Costello’s baby bonus has also made the situation worse by encouraging the increased fertility rates of Australian women.
At the present rate Australia will have a population of about 50 million by mid century and 100 million by the end of the century. If this sounds implausible, consider that at the end of World War II, just 64 years ago, Australia’s population was only 7.5 million, i.e. it has almost tripled in that time.
This population growth should be considered an economic and environmental problem of huge proportions. From the economic point of view, Australia relies mostly on mining and agriculture for its export earnings. These industries require a very small proportion of the population to operate (although it is true that due to inadequate training in the technical trades and engineering, they have suffered a temporary labour shortages in recent years).
The growing population in Australia will not increase exports of iron ore, coal or gold and will reduce our exports of food as we are forced to consume more of our output internally. The money that comes to Australia from the sales of our resources presently gets divided among 22 million Australians. When the population doubles the amount per capita will halve. [Read more…] about Wrong Policy on Population: A Note from Peter Ridd
Clean-up Just Stirs Up
The green-forced “clean-up” by General Electric of PCBs in Hudson River sediments has — to no one’s surprise — backfired. Read more here.
Wobbles Cause Climate Change
Regular wobbles in the earth’s tilt were responsible for the global warming episodes that interspersed prehistoric ice ages, according to new evidence. Read more here.
Raw Temperature Data No Longer Available
SIGNIFICANT economic interventions are being planned, that are going to impact on citizens all around the world, based on the premise that global temperatures are increasing. It would thus seem especially important that quality temperature data, the data underpinning the policy, be publicly available.
In fact there are several official temperature data sets and what is publicly available has all been adjusted. Adjustments are made for all sorts of reasons and often multiple times. The number of data bases and the extent of the data manipulation intrigues many amateur and professional statisticians who take an interest in climate change.
Recently statistician and blogger Steve McIntyre was denied access to specific data files at the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in the UK. This Institution holds the longest official records for global temperatures as measured by thermometers. His request was refused on the basis he is not an academic – presumably meaning he is not currently employed by a University. He is a qualified statistician with an impressive career in private industry and various publications. Anyway, one of his colleagues, who does hold a university position, Ross McKitrick subsequently requested the same data and this request was also rejected, but for different reasons.
According to a recent news item in the academic journal Nature, the refusal is because Phil Jones, the director of the Climate Research Unit, is being inundated with requests. A figure of 56 requests is quoted in the article. This doesn’t seem a lot to me. Furthermore, I don’t understand why the director of the institution would be involved in the processing of such requests. Surely there is an army of technicians who can process such requests particularly given the request is for the raw unadjusted data. [Read more…] about Raw Temperature Data No Longer Available
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.