RESEARCHERS from The Australian National University have created the world’s first comprehensive visual atlas of global rainfall projections over the next 100 years based on all of the models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its most recent report.
PhD researcher Wee Ho Lim and Dr Michael Roderick from ANU have created the Atlas of the Global Water Cycle, which contains some 300 pages of global maps and tables showing current and projected measures of rainfall, evaporation and runoff.
The atlas illustrate the projections of each of the 20 computer models used by different countries to forecast future water cycles – data drawn upon by the IPCC in its reporting on climate change, but not visualised in the same way and place until now.
“We know that as the world warms there is likely to be more rainfall on a global average basis,” Dr Roderick said. “But where is this increased rainfall going to occur, and which areas might get drier? These are simple questions to ask, but it is surprisingly hard for an individual to get an answer, whether they’re a farmer, civil engineer, teacher or interested citizen,” Dr Roderick said.
Read the rest of the media release here.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.
“We know that as the world warms there is likely to be more rainfall on a global average basis,” Dr Roderick said.
some people just get off on the wrong foot.
And who paid for this nonsense? Lysenko, with Goebbels’ colour scheme, marches on.
But Flannery says more droughts. Others say more cyclones. Also,the great rivers of Asia drying up as glaciers disappear. Are all these predictions right?
As Humpty Dumpty said to Alice: “You see it’s like a portmanteau – there are two meanings packed up into one word.”
Why waste the time preparing a book such as this? The GCMs used by the IPCC do not model the frequency and magnitudes of past ENSO events with any degree of accuracy.
“One problem with these kinds of visualisation for a place like Australia is that there is little consensus between the different models for what will happen to rainfall on our continent.”
“The atlas means that you can now see all the different models’ predictions for Australia and the world in detail, and then come to a more informed understanding. All these models are like crystal balls for the global water cycle – but it’s a question of whose crystal ball is the best and how do we know that? I can’t answer that question, but at least by having all the information to compare people will be able to make more informed decisions.”
Make a more informed decision? I guess they must be referring to how you vote- turn out anyone who buys that the science is settled.
The UK met office used their new super computer, I think it was ex Nasa, to model this years British summer, they called it the Barbecue Summer, it`s never stopped raining since, I believe the Met are world leaders in this climate modeling business. Here in the UK if the Met say it will rain we go down to the Beach, if they say heatwave we go off to Spain.
The book might be interpreted as a source of prediction of rainfall. It is dangerous for that reason, because the IPCC projections are not remotely reliable as potential predictions. It is irresponsible and wicked that they let such dangerous book be published.
John Elliot@
Experts scale back hurricane forecast
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2009-08-04-hurricane_forecast_scaleback_N.htm
http://www.examiner.com/x-11224-Baltimore-Weather-Examiner~y2009m8d5-Hurricane-season-forecast-lowered
Just spent a few days in Newcastle (NSW). Last Tue or Wed there was an item in the Newcastle Herald about a similar publication. I don’t think it was the same Atlas as it mentioned the output of 80 models not 20. Upshot was that the ‘experts’ involved were suggesting a figure of +50 mm increase in rainfall in the Hunter region by mid-century. This figure was arrived at by ‘averaging’ the predictions of all the models. The outliers were -75 mm (CSIRO) and +75 (Canadian study).
Still, the Herald is at least keeping us informed.