Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for August 2009

Sunspots Just Part of The Story: Fred Singer

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CLIMATE modelers seem puzzled that small fluctuations in total solar irradiance (TSI) appear to have large influence on the climate. 

They feel it necessary to take recourse to complicated mechanisms. 

For example, Gerald Meehl of the US-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and his team have been able to calculate how the extremely small variations in TSI bring about a comparatively significant change in the system “Atmosphere-Ocean”.  [1]

They try to explain how ‘sunspot frequency’ has an unexpectedly strong influence on cloud formation and precipitation. 

One suggested mechanism is a solar-UV enhancement of stratospheric ozone, leading to circulation changes in the troposphere, a possibility explored earlier by British researcher Joanna Haigh.  Another complicated mechanism suggested is increased heating and evaporation from cloud-free regions of the ocean, with the additional moisture transported into the equatorial zone, followed by some kind of positive feedback.

But the answer may really be very simple.  [Read more…] about Sunspots Just Part of The Story: Fred Singer

Global Cooling has Begun: Bob Foster

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Darwin Part 1 Oct 05 049 blogBIG things are happening Sun-wise.  The longer Solar Cycle 24 is delayed, the weaker should it be.  Thus, it is more likely day by day – while Cycle 24 remains in deferral – that we are entering the next Little Ice Age cold period (Landscheidt Minimum1). 

In 2004, NASA predicted an extra-powerful Cycle 24 starting in 2006, far stronger than modest Cycle 23 – thus supplementing IPCC’s projected people-driven warming.  As you might expect, there are very few people outside the ‘mainstream’ consensus policed by Royal Society, IPCC, NASA – and propagated by the great journals Science and Nature – with the expertise to challenge NASA on this esoteric topic. But happily, there are some. 

The collective angular momentum of the giant outer planets drives the Sun’s highly-irregular orbit about the centre-of-mass of the solar system (as Newton knew); and the timing (albeit, not yet the magnitude) of consequential solar variability can therefore be predicted.  By “variability” I don’t mean in total solar irradiance; because TSI varies only by fractions of a percent.  I am referring to the outflow of magnetised plasma from the Sun – which can vary by orders of magnitude at timings from quotidian to millennial.   [Read more…] about Global Cooling has Begun: Bob Foster

Warnings about Bushfire Warnings: A Note from Roger Underwood

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AWSOME_topA PERSISTENT complaint from victims of the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria was that they had “received no warning”. Over and again we heard statements like this: “There was no fire anywhere, but the next thing, we had fire all around us. There was no word of warning, and we never stood a chance”.

This issue has since been highlighted by the Royal Commission in its Interim Report, and is being taken to heart by fire authorities all over Australia. In Western Australia, for example, the Fire and Emergency Service (FESA) has rolled out a new warning arrangement based on mobile phones, and has carried out a substantial and well-publicised test in a Perth Hills suburb. It was said (by FESA) to have been a great success.

This is a delicate subject, because I don’t want to sound disrespectful to people who lost their lives or suffered in the Victorian fires. I realise that many people are perplexed by the way they were engulfed by fire and caught by surprise. I understand the desire of authorities to get warning systems in place. Officials realise that a failure to deal with this issue in future fires will come back to haunt them if complaints are made to Royal Commissions, Coronial inquiries and the media.

However, the downsides, weaknesses and dangers in bushfire warning systems must be properly understood.  [Read more…] about Warnings about Bushfire Warnings: A Note from Roger Underwood

SPENCER WRONG NOAA Blunder Explains Claims of Warming Oceans?

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Spencer on SST chart 3SCIENTISTS at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) appear to have made a blunder with a data adjustment and splice resulting in sea surface temperatures being warmer than they would otherwise be by about 0.175 degrees C over the last two decades.

Roy Spencer, from the University of Alabama, discovered the error just a few days ago which according to meteorologist Anthony Watts, accounts for 24% of the 0.74 deg C global warming claimed for 1905-2005.

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UPDATE:  THE ERROR WAS ROY SPENCERS

To make a long story short, because the orbit boost caused the TMI to be able to “see” to slightly higher latitudes, the way in which individual latitude bands are handled has a significant impact on the resulting temperature anomalies that are computed over time. [Read more…] about SPENCER WRONG NOAA Blunder Explains Claims of Warming Oceans?