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Archives for April 29, 2009

The Mathematics of Connectivity and Bushfires: A Note from David Ward

April 29, 2009 By jennifer

HUNGARY has produced many outstanding mathematicians and physicists. Perhaps there is a connection with rampant violin playing.

One of these was Paul Erdös who was the twentieth century’s most prolific mathematician, with 1475 papers to his credit. He rivals Leonhard Euler, the Swiss genius of the eighteenth century. There is a worthwhile biography of Erdös called ‘The Man Who Loved Only Numbers’, by Paul Hoffman (1998).

On a recent thread at this blog (Wise Men Excluded from Bushfire Royal Commission), I raised the issue of fuel connectivity, and suggested that it helped to explain the uncontrollable spread of bushfires over large areas of Victoria a few months ago.

The tonnage of available fuel determines the intensity, and convection column strength, and the number of flying embers, but connectivity determines ground spread. Wind is important, but large fires, of course, create their own wind. It seems to me that the application of Occam’s Razor makes climate superfluous to the argument, beyond there being weather dry enough for a fire to burn. Given dry fuel, fierce fires can occur even at mild temperatures. Surely we have all lit a pot-belly stove on a winter’s day.

Although I doubt if he had ever seen a bushfire, or a gumtree, Erdös had useful ideas on connectivity in networks. With a Hungarian colleague, he published papers about ‘giant patches’. These form when random connections are made between a set of random points (Erdös and Renyi 1959, 1960).

[Read more…] about The Mathematics of Connectivity and Bushfires: A Note from David Ward

Filed Under: Opinion Tagged With: Bushfires

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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