Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for March 2009

Radical New Hypothesis on the Effect of Greenhouse Gases

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CLIMATE is complex but in an attempt to understand the effects of increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide on global temperatures simplified General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been developed and are used by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).      Al Gore, in his famous movie ‘An Inconvenient Truth’, explained that as the concentration of carbon dioxide increases in the atmosphere, more energy is trapped, warming the planet.   This assumption is central to the GCMs and the current consensus on climate change. 

Some sceptics complain that the GCMs do not realistically simulate climate because there are many processes that can’t be adequately modelled including cloud formation.  Michael Hammer, an engineer who specializes in spectroscopy, is also sceptical of the GCM but his criticism is more fundamental.  In the following paper, using the basic laws of spectroscopy, he shows that a significant portion of energy loss from the Earth’s surface is by direction radiation to space at wavelengths not absorbed by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.    This is in direct contrast to the IPCC explanation that there is low radiation from the Earth’s surface to space and potentially high radiation from the atmosphere to space.

Science is a process of getting it wrong and hopefully learning – on this single issue Michael Hammer and the IPCC can’t both be right.  

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Unethical Forest Protestors in Tasmania: A Note from Alan Ashbarry

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IN a rare display of sympathy and understanding for forest contractors, ABC journalist Tom Tilley has put the hard word on protestors in the Upper Florentine Valley, accusing them of perhaps even being “unethical”.  

You can play the interview at the ABC Triple J website  while watching a slide show. [1]
  

The issue is ongoing conflict at a blockade in the Florentine Valley along a road that was constructed in the mid 1960’s. Until recently a protest camp has blocked the path of a new spur road to access forest harvesting areas.  The timber of the Florentine Valley, together with the Styx Valley, was granted to a consortium of media companies in the late 1930’s to create a newsprint pulp and paper mill and jobs at the end of the last world recession.

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HundredsThousands Protest Global Warming

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IT was predicted to be the largest demonstration yet against coal and climate change, 10,000 activists to descend on a coal-fired power plant in Washington DC.

According to the Capitol Climate Action website, they are there now, as I write, “courageous activists have occupied three of five gates at the Capitol Power Plant. The march of thousands is continuing to circle the plant. The situation is peaceful, non-violent, and of course inspiring…

“The atmosphere is charged with hope and excitement. People are bundled up in their warmest coats and staying active by chanting. I hear ‘Coal can never be clean.’ There’s a prayer vigil in the south section of the park.”

There may have been even more people including celebrities from New York at the rally, if it wasn’t for the unseasonal cold weather and large snowfalls delaying flights into Washington.

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Global Warming in Perspective: A Note from William Happer

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“BUT the climate is warming and CO2 is increasing. Doesn’t this prove that CO2 is causing global warming through the greenhouse effect? 

“No, the current warming period began about 1800 at the end of the little ice age, long before there was an appreciable increase of CO2. There have been similar and even larger warmings several times in the 10,000 years since the end of the last ice age. These earlier warmings clearly had nothing to do with the combustion of fossil fuels. The current warming also seems to be due mostly to natural causes, not to increasing levels of carbon dioxide. Over the past ten years there has been no global warming, and in fact a slight cooling. This is not at all what was predicted by the IPCC models.”

So explained William Happer, a professor of physics at Princeton University, to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on February 25, 2009.

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To Tax or Trade Carbon

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Australian economist Alan Moran considers the advantages of taxing versus trading to reduce carbon emissions and concludes the best policy for Australia is to do nothing till 2020, then catch up by 2050, given the Treasury’s estimate at 3 percent of GDP.  Read more here.

Shark Numbers and Shark Attacks

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THERE have been three shark attacks in Sydney waters over the last three weeks, but there is no agreement as to whether shark numbers are on the increase – or not.

According to NSW Deputy Premier, Carmel Tebbuts, there is no evidence of increased shark numbers in NSW but Ms Tebbuts does admit cleaner waterways around Sydney (via SMH).

According to the Department of Primary Industries chief scientist, Steve Kennelly, because waters are cleaner there are more sharks.  Hang on! This is not what the Deputy Premier said.

Professor Kennelly explained we are seeing a healthy ecosystem, “to the point where we’re getting whales underneath the Sydney Harbour Bridge and … lots of good bait fish coming in, tailor, king fish and so on and sharks feed on those things (via ABC).

Professor Kennelly did not mention that there have also been bans on commercial fishing in Sydney Harbour since a dioxin scare in January 2006 – this would also probably mean more fish.  

According to Professor Kennelly not even new bans on hunting sharks (due to new fishing quotas) will impact on the risk of shark attacks (also via ABC Online).  

Let’s summarize, sharks eat fish, so if there are more fish you might expect more sharks, add to this, new bans on hunting sharks, so again expect more sharks.   More sharks might increase the risk of shark attacks.   “Nah”, suggest some bureaucrats and politicians!

Wouldn’t it be better if government admitted that policies intended to increase the numbers of fish and sharks, are having an effect, and so the risk of shark attack could increase – and then explain how to mitigate like not swimming at dawn or dusk.