Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for November 21, 2008

Following-Up on that Climate Debate: William Kininmonth & David Karoly

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Hi Jen,

All things considered, I thought the debate went very well. The show of hands at the end indicated 50-50. I have had complimentary calls today. The following is a summary that Des Moore has sent around.

Climate Debate – Hawthorn Town Hall – 19 Nov

I attended last night a debate between Professor David Karoly, who is an adviser to Professor Garnaut and Victorian Premier John Brumby, and William Kininmonth at the Hawthorn Town Hall on “We should be concerned with human-caused climate change”.

I estimate that about 220 people attended and there was an “active” question time after the speakers completed their presentations. A show-of-hands vote taken at the conclusion suggested a slight majority in favour of WK.

I will not atttempt here to analyse the issues raised by either side other than to mention the heavy reliance on modelling by DK to “prove” his points. However, it is worth noting  the marked contrast in style of presentation, with DK adopting an aggressive approach (that provoked an initial adverse reaction from the audience) and WK adopting a calm relaxed one.

There is little doubt that DK’s approach lost him “votes” and, more importantly, left an impression that his expertise was not necessarily something on which much reliance should be placed. Indeed, it served to (again) confirm doubts about the basis of the science used by the IPCC, for which DK was a lead author…

My guess is that DK was a bit taken aback by the audience response, including a number of sensible questions…

Des Moore

The local Community TV Channel 31 filmed the event to show later and they said they would send a copy to me.

Regards,
Bill

Earliest Temperature Records from Near the North Pole (Subarctic Temperatures Part 1)

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IT is generally agreed that there has been some global warming over the last 100 or so years and that this has been most pronounced in the Arctic – at the North Pole. 

There is temperature data for Hudson Bay in central Canada – not at the North Pole, or within the Arctic Circle, but nevertheless a long way north – back to 1768.  

In 1768 two astronomers from the Royal Society were sent to observe the transit of Venus at Hudson Bay (see Instrumental Temperature Records at Two Sites in Central Canada: 1768 to 1910.  Timothy Ball and Roger Kingsley, Climate Change, Vol 6. pgs 39-56. ).  

At the late John Daly’s website, Miceal O’Ronain has plotted this very early record, and subsequent records from the Hudson’s Bay Company, with data from the modern weather station at Churchill to 2002.

The earlier records suggest great variation in the temperature in the nineteenth century, but this may be an artefact of how it was measured.  The upswing at the very end of the twentieth century is probably real and corresponds with the present period of decline in the extent of sea ice at the Arctic particularly in summer.

[Click on the chart for a larger and much clearer view.]