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Jennifer Marohasy

Jennifer Marohasy

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Archives for August 2008

Clouds at the Edge of Space

August 27, 2008 By jennifer

Two years after the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa, the Indonesian supervolcano, Robert Leslie published a note in the journal Nature describing wispy blue filaments in the night sky. He is now credited with the discovery of noctilucent clouds (NLCs).

clouds in space_iss017e011632 blog.jpg
Photograph from the International Space Station, positioned 340 km over western Mongolia on July 22, 2008. Clouds estimated to be 83km above earth (at the edge of space). Credit to NASA at http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/25aug_nlc.htm

According to Gary Thomas, atmospheric scientists at the University of Colorado, the clouds are thought to be spreading and their first sightings coincide with the Industrial Revolution.

————–
Thanks to Willem for the link.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

No Reliable Data on Historical Polar Bear Numbers – A Note from Nichole Hoskin

August 26, 2008 By Nichole Hoskin

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a symbol of global warming, and their predicted decline a sign of worst to come, but until very recently population estimates were really just educated guesses. Current polar bear numbers are estimated to total between 20,000 and 25,000.

On May 14 2008, when announcing the decision to list polar bears as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, Secretary for the U.S. Department of Interior, Dirk Kempthorne stated,

“Although the population of bears has grown from a low of about 12,000 in the late 1960’s to approximately 25,000 today, our scientists advise me that computer modeling projects a significant population decline by the year 2050.”

But there are no published papers or reports to support the claim that there were about 12,000 polar bears forty years ago.

At the 1968 meeting of International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Polar Bear Specialist Group in Alaska, the Canadian Wildlife Service representatives suggested that numbers were as low as 5,000 in the 1950s and 1960s.

Current Chairman of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group, Andrew Derocher, has stressed,

“The early estimates of polar bear abundance are a guess. There is no data at all for the 1950-60s. Nothing but guesses. We are sure the populations were being negatively affected by excess harvest (e.g., aircraft hunting, ship hunting, self-killing guns, traps, and no harvest limits). The harvest levels were huge and growing. The resulting low numbers of bears were due only to excess harvest but, again, it was simply a guess as to the number of bears.”

But how can Dr Derocher be sure that polar bear populations were being negatively affected by harvesting if there is no hard data on population numbers for the same period?

In 1972, at the 3rd Working Meeting of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist group the Norwegian representative, Thor Larson, suggested there were as many as 20,000 in the late 1960s. Larson said,

“Merely by summarising the various national counts, which still must be considered inaccurate, one reaches the conclusion that the worlds total polar bear population is probably closer to 20,000 animals, than to the lower figures often suggested.”

Just maybe there have always been about 20,000 polar bears in the Arctic?

Nichole Hoskin is a research assistant at the Institute of Public Affairs and is adding to the Environmental Wiki associated with this blog.

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Other blog posts by Nichole Hoskin on polar bears include:
Polar Bears Can Survive where there is no Summer Sea Ice: A Note from Nichole Hoskin, August 20, 2008. https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/003342.html

This blog is a gathering place for people with a common interest in politics and the environment. We strive for tolerance and respect. We don’t always agree with what we publish, but we believe in giving people an opportunity to be heard.

Filed Under: Opinion Tagged With: Plants and Animals, Polar Bears

Barack Obama’s Running Mate is Very Green

August 26, 2008 By jennifer

Joe Biden is Barack Obama’s running mate and perhaps the next vice president of the USA. Popular website Grist has examined his environmental record and found it to be very ‘green’. The Senator:

1. was a cosponsor of the Boxer-Sanders Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act, which advocated a cap-and trade-system for greenhouse-gase emmissions and an 80 percent reduction below 1990 levels by 2050;

2. has called for increasing ethanol and biodiesel production in the US; and

3. has called for 20 percent of US electricity to be from renewable sources.

According to Grist during his 35 years in the Senate he has voted “fairly consistently with environmentalists”.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

David Dilley Predicts Global Cooling Now

August 26, 2008 By jennifer

“IN a new e-book ‘Global Warming—Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found’, meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley utilizes nearly a half million years of data linking long term gravitational cycles of the moon explain the recent global warming, rises in carbon dioxide levels, and for 2200 global warming cycles during the past half million years.

“The gravitational cycles are called the Primary Forcing Mechanism for Climate (PFM), and act like a magnet by pulling the atmosphere’s high pressure systems northward or southward by as much as 3 or 4 degrees of latitude from their normal seasonal positions, and thus causing long-term shifts in the location of atmospheric high pressure systems.

“Research by Mr. Dilley shows a near 100 percent correlation between the PFM gravitational cycles to the beginning and ending of global warming cycles. Global warming cycles began right on time with each PFM cycle during the past half million years, as did the current warming which began 100 years ago, and it will end right on time as the current gravitational cycle begins its cyclical decline.

“Global temperatures have cooled during the past 12 months. During 2008 and 2009 the first stage of global cooling will cool the world’s temperatures to those observed during the years from the 1940s through the 1970s. By the year 2023 global climate will become similar to the colder temperatures experienced during the 1800s.

“Mr. Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations has found seven different types of recurring gravitational cycles ranging from the very warm 460,000 year cycle down to a 230year recurring global warming cycle. All of the gravitational cycles coincide nearly 100 percent with 2200 global warming events during the past half million years. This includes the earth’s current warming cycle which began around the year 1900, and the first stage of global cooling that will begin during 2008 and 2009.

“The release of the book culminates 19 years of research clearly linking gravitational cycles as the cause for fluctuations within the earth’s climate. The book is available as an electronic e-Book on this website. The author David Dilley is a meteorologist and climate researcher with Global Weather Oscillations Inc.” [end of quote]

Information from David Dilley via the ICECAP blog

—————–
This blog is a gathering place for people with a common interest in politics and the environment. We strive for tolerance and respect. We don’t always agree with what we publish, but we believe in giving people an opportunity to be heard.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

A Recent Visit to Alexandria Bay, Noosa National Park

August 25, 2008 By jennifer

I visited Alexandria Bay at Noosa National Park last Thursday. It’s a beautiful place about 160 kms north of Brisbane on the east coast of Australia.

Noosa 023 blog2.jpg
Pandanas palm with view to Pacific Ocean.

There is a sandy track that winds through woodland and heathland from Sunshine Beach.

Noosa 079 blog2.jpg
Scrub turkey under pandanas palm.

It is always fun to explore rock pools.

Noosa 064 blog 2.jpg
Rock pool at northern headland.

Noosa 067 blog2.jpg
The same rock pool from a higher ledge.

Noosa 068 blog 2.jpg
The same rock pool from a higher ledge.

On the way home it was sad to find a stranded stingray.

Noosa 086 blog2.jpg
Stingray on the beach.

During previous visits to Noosa National Park I have seen a koala and an echidna.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

100 Years of Science: Lecture in Sydney, September 6, 2008

August 25, 2008 By jennifer

Professor Jak Kelly will present ‘Science then and now: What will 100 years have done for science?’ as it was delivered 100 years ago to a meeting of the Royal Society of NSW, in the now heritage-listed Science House in the Rocks (Sydney) on Saturday September 6, 2008.

According to the latest newsletter from the Royal Society of NSW, an equally eminent scientist will follow with a demonstration of the advances in science since that time.

Was science held in much higher regard back then – around the turn of the 20th Century?

———————-
Science then and now – what 100 years has done for science
2-4 pm Saturday September 6, 2008
Science House, 157 Gloucester Street (corner of Essex) in Sydney CBD
Bookings not essential

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Advertisements

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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