Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for July 15, 2008

Global Warming: Recent Evidence for Reduced Climate Sensitivity

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Dr. Roy Spencer from The University of Alabama at Huntsville will be presenting a special seminar at CU Boulder in the CIRES Auditorium on Thursday, July 17th, based on the Journal of Climate paper (in press):

Spencer, R.W., and W.D. Braswell, 2008: Feedback vs. Chaotic Radiative Forcing: “Smoking Gun” Evidence for an Insensitive Climate System?

Abstract

“A simple model and satellite observations are used to demonstrate that previous diagnoses of climate feedbacks from the satellite record have a strong bias in the direction of high climate sensitivity (positive feedback). The source of the bias is chaotic radiative forcing generated within the climate system, most likely due to low clouds. Through analysis of frequency histograms of local regression slopes computed throughout the low-pass filtered time series of temperature and total (reflected shortwave SW and emitted longwave LW) radiative fluxes, the radiative forcing signal is shown to have a unique signature separate from the feedback signature. The global oceanic averages of satellite CERES data during 2000 through 2005 reveal a net (SW+LW) feedback parameter of around 8 W m-2 K-1. This strong negative feedback signal exists independent of the low-pass filter time scale, from 10 day to 2 years. In stark contrast, IPCC AR4 models analyzed with the same method all exhibit positive feedbacks of various strengths. It is suggested that the unrealistically high sensitivity of the climate models is the result of a misinterpretation of the co-variability of clouds and temperature when specifying cloud parameterizations. Since only radiative feedback has been assumed in feedback analysis of natural variability (clouds being forced by temperature), the presence of chaotic radiative forcing of temperature by clouds causes the false appearance of positive feedback. In short, cause and effect have been confused. Finally, if such a strong negative feedback has indeed been operating on multi-decadal time scales, this means that the radiative forcing from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is not nearly strong enough to explain the 1°C warming in the last century.”

The pdf of the ms powerpoint presentation is here.

Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group News: Special Guest Seminar at CU by Roy Spencer, July 17, 2008:Global Warming: Recent Evidence for Reduced Climate Sensitivity

Some More Things ‘Caused’ by ‘Global Warming’

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A top Democrat told high school students gathered at the U.S. Capitol Thursday that climate change caused Hurricane Katrina and the conflict in Darfur, which led to the “black hawk down” battle between U.S. troops and Somali rebels.

Rep. Edward Markey (D-Mass.), chairman of the House (Select) Energy Independence and Global Warming Committee, also equated the drive for global warming legislation with the drive for women’s suffrage in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

But one global warming expert from the conservative Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) told Cybercast News Service that such a remark reveals Markey’s ignorance on the subject of global warming.

CNSNews.com: Global Warming Led to ‘Black Hawk Down,’ Congressman Says

It may not be the most profound effect of global warming, but it could be the most painful: Climate change could bring a sharp increase in cases of kidney stones in Illinois and other Midwestern states, according to a new study.

Linking climate change to kidney stones seems odd, but it’s based on the solid medical finding that people in warm regions develop the condition at increased rates. Sweating in warm weather removes fluid from the body and increases the salt concentration in urine, which can spur the growth of kidney stones.

By the year 2050, the new report estimates that a large chunk of Illinois will fall within America’s “kidney-stone belt,” which currently includes only Southern states. The Chicago area alone would see up to 100,000 extra cases each year, according to the report published Monday in a widely respected journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

chicagotribune.com: Global warming to spark rise in kidney stone cases, study says

I’m not sure if John Brignell has these latest consequences of global warming on his ‘warm list’ – A complete list of things caused by global warming.

Global Warming – the cause of everything and every weather event is ‘consistent‘ with climate models.

Close Encounter of the Cassowary Kind

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CassChick1a.jpg

Breakfast at Cooper Creek Wilderness took a dramatic turn this morning with the unexpected arrival of a distressed cassowary chick. Not more than a month old, its separation from its family unit was cause for great concern. It ran about whistling for its father, but without response.

The image (above) shows the striped pattern providing a degree of concealment amongst the forest ground-cover. The second image shows the young cassowary, standing on our concrete verandah. After taking the shot, the chick then moved into the kitchen, which has no doors and then onwards to explore other aspects of our dwelling.

Perhaps ten minutes after its arrival, the dad made its presence known with another two chicks in tow. Re-united, the family walked quietly off into the wilderness, allowing our own kids to re-focus on readying themselves for the start of school’s third term.

CassChick2.jpg

Has Lord Peter Lost His Tools: A Note from Davey

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England has produced a number of outstanding detective story writers. Agatha Christie comes to mind with her character Hercule Poirot. Another is Dorothy L. Sayers, with her diffident, yet steely-minded toff, Lord Peter Wimsey.

There were also other sides to Dorothy. She was a moderate feminist, and one of the first women to graduate from Oxford University. She was a reputable medieval scholar.

In 1947 she delivered a talk at Oxford University called ‘The Lost Tools of Learning’, in which she suggested that western education has lost its way, by trying to cram in facts, rather than first developing skills. She pointed to the medieval trivium as a good way of giving students the ‘tools of learning’, namely logic (to think clearly), grammar (to write and speak clearly), and rhetoric (to mount a persuasive argument).

We see plenty of environmental rhetoric on this blog site, but is it all logical? Is there too much quoting of ‘facts’ (some might say ‘factoids’), and not enough sound argument? Is the use of scientific jargon and acronyms intended to obfuscate or impress, rather than to seek the truth? Should not all ‘models’ be accompanied by a clearly written statement of their assumptions?

In my view Dorothy’s argument was valid in 1947, and is even more valid now. She also wrote it up as an essay, which is available at several websites. Search on (sayers tools trivium). Have a read – it’s only a few pages.

Dr. David Naugle (search on naugle trivium sayers) has reviewed her essay, and the benefits of the trivium have been discussed elsewhere, for example in the book ‘Chaucer and the Trivium:The Mindsong of the Canterbury Tales’, by J. Stephen Russell.

I suggest that the humanities, and the medieval trivium, have a great deal to offer in current political and environmental debate. It might help people to cope with the torrent of ‘news’, advertising, and ‘spin doctoring’. Any comments?

Green and Medieval Davey Gam Esq.
Perth, Western Australia

Say No to Emissions Trading: Art Raiche

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It is foolish beyond measure to enter into an Emissions Trading System (ETS) based on the hysterical predictions of CSIRO’s computer modelling. To quote Prof Freeman Dyson of the Institute of Advanced Study at Princeton, one of the world’s most eminent physicists: “The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models.”

If there is global consensus that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are causing global warming, why is it that over 30,000 US scientists disagree and have petitioned the US government against actions to mitigate CO2 emissions? See http://www.petitionproject.org/

Why have the oceans been cooling for 5 years? Why is Antarctic sea ice increasing?

Why is it that despite the past decade of increased CO2 emission levels, the temperature has been stable and is predicted by the Hadley Centre to actually go down over the next decade?

We need to think very carefully before following the recommendations of the Garnaut Report, possibly the longest economic suicide note in Australia’s history.

Art Raiche
Killara, NSW

Rainforest Cancer Cure One Step Closer

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Dr Paul Reddell, co-founder Dr Victoria Gordon and the EcoBiotics team, have discovered a rainforest plant that produces a possible cancer-fighting molecule.

Clinical trials of a previously untreatable type of cancer in horses have produced dramatic results: “The cancers were the size of a tennis ball to begin and following the injection of this drug have shrunk, died and then fallen out. Finally the skin around the tumour area has healed.”

As originally reported in the Cairns Post, Dr. Reddell said, “We are now looking to move the drug to testing against obstructive tumours and skin cancers in humans.”

Bio-discovery is emerging as an increasingly important and value-added attribute of bio-diversity, with important economic implications for conservation. In 2004, following the Commonwealth Government’s ratification of the ‘Convention on Biological Diversity’, the Queensland Government enacted its Bio-discovery Act, to facilitate access by biodiscovery entities to minimal quantities of native biological resources on or in State land or Queensland waters, to encourage the development, in the State, of value added biodiscovery and to ensure the State, for the benefit of all persons in the State, obtains a fair and equitable share in the benefits of biodiscovery..