Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for June 17, 2008

The Only Way is UP: Reality Trumps Emissions Projections

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There is a new paper (in press) in the journal Climatic Change by Peter Sheenan of the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia entitled: ‘The new global growth path: implications for climate change analysis and policy’

The Abstract states:

In recent years the world has moved to a new path of rapid global growth, largely driven by the developing countries, which is energy intensive and heavily reliant on the use of coal—global coal use will rise by nearly 60% over the decade to 2010. It is likely that, without changes to the policies in place in 2006, global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion would nearly double their 2000 level by 2020 and would continue to rise beyond 2030. Neither the SRES marker scenarios nor the reference cases assembled in recent studies using integrated assessment models capture this abrupt shift to rapid growth based on fossil fuels, centred in key Asian countries. While policy changes must and will occur, the realism of the reference case is critical for analysis and policy formulation. Using such a reference path will have significant effects on impact and damage estimates, on the analysis of achievable stabilisation paths and on estimates of the costs of achieving stabilisation at a given GHG concentration level. Use of a realistic reference path is also essential for the international negotiations, arising out of the COP13 meeting in Bali, to achieve widely desired stabilisation goals: both the level of emission reductions to be achieved, and the preferred distribution of those reductions over countries and regions, will be heavily influenced by the reference case assumed.

Meanwhile, China has clearly overtaken the United States as the world’s leading emitter of carbon dioxide, a new study has found, its emissions increasing 8 percent in 2007. The Chinese increase accounted for two-thirds of the growth in the year’s global greenhouse gas emissions.

As UK Aussie Rolf Harris would say, “Can you tell what it is yet?”

Hat tip to Prometheus.

New Paper has Implications for Tree Ring Data

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A new paper has been published in the journal Nature entitled: ‘Subtropical to boreal convergence of tree-leaf temperatures’ by Brent R. Helliker & Suzanna L. Richter, which has implications for climate reconstructions using tree ring data.

The Abstract states:

The oxygen isotope ratio (18O) of cellulose is thought to provide a record of ambient temperature and relative humidity during periods of carbon assimilation. Here we introduce a method to resolve tree-canopy leaf temperature with the use of 18O of cellulose in 39 tree species. We show a remarkably constant leaf temperature of 21.4 2.2 °C across 50° of latitude, from subtropical to boreal biomes. This means that when carbon assimilation is maximal, the physiological and morphological properties of tree branches serve to raise leaf temperature above air temperature to a much greater extent in more northern latitudes. A main assumption underlying the use of 18O to reconstruct climate history is that the temperature and relative humidity of an actively photosynthesizing leaf are the same as those of the surrounding air. Our data are contrary to that assumption and show that plant physiological ecology must be considered when reconstructing climate through isotope analysis. Furthermore, our results may explain why climate has only a modest effect on leaf economic traits in general.

There is a summary of the paper in Nature News here.

The authors state in the text of the article:

“Our analysis shows that reconstructing ambient humidity by using tree-ring d18O becomes increasingly dubious as MAT [mean annual temperature] decreases. Caution is therefore advised when interpreting treering d18O data from high latitudes for both contemporary samples and samples of relictual wood from high-latitude forests of the past.”

and:

“The discovery of relatively invariant leaf temperatures has two important ramifications that transcend stable-isotope studies. First, elevated canopy temperature and depressed leaf relative humidity should have a large effect on real and modelled water loss from boreal ecosystems. Second, if the architectural controls of branches on leaf temperature are as widespread as our data suggest, then direct climatic selection on the evolution of leaf traits would be relaxed, whereas the selective force of climate on other plant organs (for example stems and roots) would remain. Our results therefore offer a possible explanation for the unexpected finding that climate is a minor correlate with global leaf economic traits.”

Roger Pileke Sr’s take on this is:

This study has major implications with respect to the use of tree ring data to reconstruct long term air temperature trends, as the authors indicate in their text.

This study also illustrates the dynamic response of vegetation to their environment so as to maximize the ability to grow and compete within their ecological environment. This biological effect must be incorporated within climate models that seek to accurately simulate the response of the climate to human and natural effects, including the increase of the atmospheric concentration of CO2.

Potentially Even Bigger Feral Cats to be Imported into Australia

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Feral cats, along with wild dogs and foxes, are thought to have a devastating impact on populations of small native animals in parts of the Australian bush. But the future may be even bleaker with a larger and more ferocious breed of cat, known as the Savannah, expected to be introduced into Australia in the next five years.

According to the Sydney Morning Herald:

“More than 30 savannahs – which cost $5000 for a pet and $10,000 for a breeding animal – are expected to come to Australia in the next five years, with up to 16 now in US quarantine.

“Hybrids of wild animals and domestic animals are a stupid American trend to breed more and more exotic pets,” said Professor Peacock, who works at the University of Canberra.

“This loophole will effectively lead to fitting a nuclear warhead to our already devastating feral cat population. Haven’t our native animals got enough to contend with?”

“Mr Parker dismissed suggestions that the animals could threaten native wildlife, saying they would not be allowed to roam. The company demands that customers sign a contract stipulating specific housing arrangements.

Read more here.

A Note from James Inhofe on Lonely Battles

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“What a difference three years makes: In 2005, I led the charge against a massive global warming cap-and-trade bill. It was a lonely battle with few GOP members willing to join me on the Senate floor to publicly oppose it.

“Fast forward to June 2008: Not only was I joined by dozens of GOP Senators, but nearly 30% of the Democratic Senators rebelled against their leadership and opposed the Boxer Climate Tax Bill. In the end, Senator Boxer only had at most 35 Democratic Senators willing to vote for final passage on the largest tax bill in U.S. history. The Boxer Climate Tax Bill was so thoroughly disowned by Democratic Leadership that proponents of climate taxes will now be forced to start from scratch next year.

“Republicans were prepared to debate the bill and were ready to offer amendments. But the Democrats did not want to debate, much less vote, on our amendments that were aimed at protecting American families and workers from the devastating economic impacts of this bill. When faced with the inconvenient truth of the bill’s impact on skyrocketing gas prices, it was Democratic Senators who wanted to see this bill die a quick death…

Read more here: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=27000

Dems Running on Empty, in HumanEvents.com, by Sen. James Inhofe (more by this author)
Posted 06/16/2008 ET