Temperatures in the Arctic are rising far faster than in other parts of the world. Climate models produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are tuned to reproduce the human-made greenhouse effect, predict the region should have warmed by 1.4 °C between 1960 and 2000. In fact, the Arctic’s average air temperature rose by 2.2 °C.
Vladimir Semenov of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Moscow, Russia, says that ocean currents carrying warm water from lower latitudes into polar regions could have played a part in this increase. He analysed air temperature data from the north Atlantic, which revealed a cyclic pattern of highs and lows over the past century. He argues the length of such cycles must be explained by ocean currents, which also fluctuate over a timescale of decades.
Between 1970 and 2000, the average temperature of the northern hemisphere increased by 0.5 °C. Semenov calculates that the natural process he outlined may have been responsible for around 0.2 °C.
New Scientist Environment: Arctic currents may be warming the world (subscription required to read full article).
Conference poster: A mechanism for the early 20th century warming in the Arctic: a missing link Lennart Bengtsson, Vladimir A. Semenov and Ola M. Johannessen
Thanks to Luke for alerting us to this interesting research.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.
Good post, and courtesy of Luke no less!
I knew Luke was too smart not to be a sceptic at heart.
Drongo, there cones a time, when the train is about to crash into the end of the line, even the true believers of failsafe braking systems decide to jump off.
May be our Luke has got there at last, & is getting his toes into jumping mode.
PS. Thanks for the info Luke.
Drongo, there cones a time, when the train is about to crash into the end of the line, even the true believers of failsafe braking systems decide to jump off.
May be our Luke has got there at last, & is getting his toes into jumping mode.
PS. Thanks for the info Luke.
Not likely. Just being fair 🙂
Read the paper. Something for everyone.
And for your further enjoyment …
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/05/what-the-ipcc-models-really-say/
what the IPCC models REALLY say …
I think what they REALLY say is that they don’t really know what to say.
Without very wide error bars, that is.
For the sake of balance let’s put this link in here.
Comments on Real Climate discussion What The IPCC Models Really Say.
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001425how_to_make_two_deca.html