Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for May 9, 2008

Sahara Became Dry Slowly, Not Abruptly

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The once-green Sahara turned to desert over thousands of years rather than in an abrupt shift as previously believed, according to a study on Thursday that may help understanding of future climate changes. And there are now signs of a tiny shift back towards greener conditions in parts of the Sahara, apparently because of global warming, said the lead author of the report about the desert’s history published in the journal Science. The findings, about one of the biggest environmental shifts of the past 10,000 years, challenge past belief based on evidence in marine sediments that a far quicker change created the world’s biggest hot desert.

Reuters: Sahara dried out slowly, not abruptly: study

Science: Climate-Driven Ecosystem Succession in the Sahara: The Past 6000 Years

Abstract:

Desiccation of the Sahara since the middle Holocene has eradicated all but a few natural archives recording its transition from a “green Sahara” to the present hyperarid desert. Our continuous 6000-year paleoenvironmental reconstruction from northern Chad shows progressive drying of the regional terrestrial ecosystem in response to weakening insolation forcing of the African monsoon and abrupt hydrological change in the local aquatic ecosystem controlled by site-specific thresholds. Strong reductions in tropical trees and then Sahelian grassland cover allowed large-scale dust mobilization from 4300 calendar years before the present (cal yr B.P.). Today’s desert ecosystem and regional wind regime were established around 2700 cal yr B.P. This gradual rather than abrupt termination of the African Humid Period in the eastern Sahara suggests a relatively weak biogeophysical feedback on climate.

UK Escapes the ‘Green’ Version of Marxism, For Now

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The British government has shelved plans to get people to reduce their carbon footprint by allowing them to trade personal emissions permits because it would be too expensive and ambitious. After studying ways of encouraging individuals to cut their CO2 emissions so they could sell their excess permits to those who exceed their carbon quota, the environment ministry has concluded it is not yet practical.
—Reuters, 8 May 2008

In its report, the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said the carbon trading scheme had an “inherent fairness”, as everyone would get the same allowance. ..But a government report said the scheme would cost up to £2 billion to set up and seemed like a “big brother” idea….However, Defra, which carried out interviews with 92 people, also found a “strong lack of trust in the government in doing this and a reluctance for individuals to have to contribute financially”. One respondent said: “Just straight away it reminds me of going back to the war and rationing.”
—BBC News, 9 May 2008

Surprise, surprise. After months of threatening us with environmental Armageddon, scientists are now saying global warming may be put on hold for ten years. Gordon Brown’s U-turn technique has even spread to the science lobby. Could it be that our listening Prime Minister and his chums at Westminster will U-turn again and park the policies of crucifying drivers by huge taxes on fuel to save the planet while hammering the UK way of life? Go on, Gordon, give us leadership by cutting fuel tax to help restore the British economy and provide further help for the citizens you attacked in the 10p tax rate Budget fiasco.
–Iain McConnel, The Scotsman, 8 May 2008

One important development at this election was a formal agreement with the Green party calling for second preference mayoral votes for each other. This benefited the Greens – who added 40,000 votes and maintained their share of the vote and existing number of London assembly seats – but also aided the high turnout and Labour. Had I been re-elected I would have given Green nominees a central role in my administration.
–Ken Livingstone, The Guardian, 9 May 2008

In the election for London’s Mayor, the Greens got just over three per cent of the vote. They struggled elsewhere to poll anywhere near that. Yet Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Nationalists dance slavishly to the Green tune. Why do we put up with this “green” extortion to so little purpose? That’s the real mystery.
–Bernard Ingham, The Yorkshire Post, 7 May 2008

Excerpts from CCNet, 9th May 2008

Cyclone Bandwagon Gains Another Passenger

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A TOP Indian advocacy group that monitors climate change in south Asia warned last night that the Nargis cyclone that devastated Burma was “a sign of things to come”, as climate change caused extreme weather to increase in intensity.

“Nargis is a sign of things to come. Last year, Bangladesh was devastated by the tropical cyclone Sidr,” CSE director Sunita Narain said in a statement.

“The victims of these cyclones are climate change victims and their plight should remind the rich world that it is doing too little to contain its greenhouse gas emissions.”

The Australian: Cyclone ‘is a sign of things to come’

Meanwhile:

The 20 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History

Notice: All but one or two occurred before so called “global warming”.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/deadlyworld.asp

Rank: Name / Areas of Largest Loss: Year: Ocean Area: Deaths:

1. Great Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh 1970 Bay of Bengal 550,000
2. Hooghly River Cyclone, India and Bangladesh 1737 Bay of Bengal 350,000
3. Haiphong Typhoon, Vietnam 1881 West Pacific 300,000
3. Coringa, India 1839 Bay of Bengal 300,000
5. Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh 1584 Bay of Bengal 200,000
6. Great Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh 1876 Bay of Bengal 200,000
7. Chittagong, Bangladesh 1897 Bay of Bengal 175,000
8. Super Typhoon Nina, China 1975 West Pacific 171,000
9. Cyclone 02B, Bangladesh 1991 Bay of Bengal 140,000
10. Great Bombay Cyclone, India 1882 Arabian Sea 100,000
11. Hakata Bay Typhoon, Japan 1281 West Pacific 65,000
12. Calcutta, India 1864 Bay of Bengal 60,000
13. Swatlow, China 1922 West Pacific 60,000
14. Barisal, Bangladesh 1822 Bay of Bengal 50,000
15. Sunderbans coast, Bangladesh 1699 Bay of Bengal 50,000
16. Bengal Cyclone, Calcutta, India 1942 Bay of Bengal 40,000
17. Canton, China 1862 West Pacific 37,000
18. Backerganj (Barisal), Bangladesh 1767 Bay of Bengal 30,000
19. Barisal, Bangladesh 1831 Bay of Bengal 22,000
20. Great Hurricane, Lesser Antilles Islands 1780 Atlantic 22,000
21. Devi Taluk, SE India 1977 Bay of Bengal 20,000
21. Great Coringa Cyclone, India 1789 Bay of Bengal 20,000

Death counts from large killer cyclones are highly uncertain, particulary for those before 1900. The above rankings are somewhat speculative. Information sources: Banglapedia, Wikipedia, and Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones (1999), by David Longshore.

Talking carbon claptrap isn’t helping the victims of the natural disaster in Burma.

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Belief in the Truth of a Theory (Again)

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I wrote these two laws down on a scrap of paper years ago. I still have the scrap of paper but not the original reference.

Harris’s First Law:
Belief in the truth of a theory is inversely proportional to the precision of the science.

Harris’s Second Law:
The creativity of a scientist is directly proportional to how much he knows, and inversely proportional to how much he believes.

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first posted August 04, 2005
Belief in the Truth of a Theory
Posted by jennifer, at 11:11 AM

The Starck Truth about The Great Barrier Reef

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Walter Starck has an excellent 4 page rebuttal of a greenhouse doom and gloom article by Charlie Vernon over at On Line Opinion. Vernon’s article entitled, ‘The plight of the Great Barrier Reef:‘ claims that by 2050 the Great Barrier Reef will be unrecognisable: “Bacterial slime, largely devoid of life, will be everywhere.”

Dr J.E.N. (Charlie) Veron is Former Chief Scientist at the Australian Institute of Marine Science and an author based in Townsville Queensland.

Walter Starck’s response is entitled, ‘The Great Barrier Reef and the prophets of doom:’ “Even the more extreme model projections only depict tropical oceanic warming still well within the limits that thriving reefs tolerate.” Dr Walter Starck has a PhD in marine science including post graduate training and professional experience in fisheries biology. He is the editor and publisher of Golden Dolphin, a quarterly publication on CD focusing on diving, underwater photography and the ocean world.