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Jennifer Marohasy

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Archives for April 13, 2008

More on The Great BBC Website Swindle

April 13, 2008 By Paul

The controversy over climate campaigner Jo Abbess’s claimed success of intimidating the BBC’s Roger Harrabin into changing a website article rumbles on.

Christopher Booker of The Sunday Telegraph gives his opinion here:


Warmists beat straying BBC man back into line

A talking point among “climate sceptics” on both sides of the Atlantic has been the bizarre tale of how the BBC’s chief reporter on climate change censored an item on the BBC website after being harried by a “climate activist”.

On April 4 Roger Harrabin posted a story on the fact that world temperatures have not continued to rise in the past 10 years, and this year will fall to a level markedly below the average of the past two decades.

Global temperatures ‘to decrease’ [4 April ’08] – BBC News

Citing the World Meteorological Organisation, Mr Harrabin accurately reported that “global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory”.

This was a red rag to Jo Abbess of the Campaign Against Climate Change (Hon President, George Monbiot), who emailed Mr Harrabin demanding that he “correct” his item.

Mr Harrabin insisted that what he had written was true. There are indeed eminent climate scientists “who question whether warming will continue as predicted”.

This only angered Ms Abbess further. She said it was “highly irresponsible to play into the hands of the sceptics”, to “even hint that the Earth is cooling down again”.

Mr Harrabin, though he has led the BBC’s tireless promotion of warmist orthodoxy, stood firm. Even in the “general media”, he replied, “sceptics” highlight the lack of increase since 1998: to ignore this might give the impression that “debate is being censored”.

His item had, after all, added “we are still in a long-term warming trend”.

This was too much for Ms Abbess. She responded that this was not “a matter of debate”. He should not be quoting the sceptics “whose voice is heard everywhere, on every channel, deliberately obstructing the emergence of the truth”.

Unless he changed his item, she said, “I would have to conclude that you are insufficiently educated to be able to know when you have been psychologically manipulated”. She threatened to expose him by spreading his replies across the internet.

At this point the BBC’s man caved in. Within minutes a new version appeared, given the same time and date as that which he had consigned to Winston Smith’s memory hole.

Out went any mention of “sceptics” who question global warming. After a guarded reference to this year’s “slightly cooler” temperatures, a new paragraph said that they would “still be above the average” and that we will “soon exceed the record year of 1998 because of the global warming induced by greenhouse gases”.

Of course we have long known where the BBC stands on climate change. But it is good to have such clear evidence that, even when one of its reporters tries to be honest, he can be whipped back into line by a pressure group.

In the end, Ms Abbess still circulated the exchanges on the internet, to show the great victory she had won for the “emerging truth”.

Meanwhile, the BBC makes its editorial excuses here.

I’ve made what is probably a futile complaint to BBC and asked for hard evidence of the claimed comments on the article by the WMO.

There is more entertainment on the relevant thread over at the Campaign against climate change, as the Sandalistas argue with the Lentilists, refereed by the Treehuggers.

Here is the original unmolested article:

Global temperatures ‘to decrease’

By Roger Harrabin

BBC News environment analyst

Global temperatures this year will be lower than in 2007 due to the cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said.

The World Meteorological Organisation’s secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer.

This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory.
But experts have also forecast a record high temperature within five years.

‘Variability’

La Nina and El Nino are two great natural Pacific currents whose effects are so huge they resonate round the world.

El Nino warms the planet when it happens, La Nina cools it. This year, the Pacific is in the grip of a powerful La Nina.

It has contributed to torrential rains in Australia and to some of the coldest temperatures in memory in snow-bound parts of China.

LA NINA KEY FACTS

La Nina translates from the Spanish as “The Child Girl”
Refers to the extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific
Increased sea temperatures on the western side of the Pacific means the atmosphere has more energy and frequency of heavy rain and thunderstorms is increased
Typically lasts for up to 12 months and generally less damaging event than the stronger El Nino

Mr Jarraud told the BBC that the effect was likely to continue into the summer, depressing temperatures globally by a fraction of a degree.

This would mean that temperatures have not risen globally since 1998 when El Nino warmed the world.

A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming has peaked and the earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse gases than predicted.

But Mr Jarraud insisted this was not the case and noted that 1998 temperatures would still be well above average for the century.

“When you look at climate change you should not look at any particular year,” he said. “You should look at trends over a pretty long period and the trend of temperature globally is still very much indicative of warming.”
“La Nina is part of what we call ‘variability’. There has always been and there will always be cooler and warmer years, but what is important for climate change is that the trend is up.”

Experts at the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre for forecasting in Exeter said the world could expect another record temperature within five years or less, probably associated with another episode of El Nino.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

A Catalogue of Animals to Shoot From

April 13, 2008 By jennifer

Most safari outfitters offer a menu of game that clients can choose from. It’s like shopping from a catalogue.

Looking down these lists is slightly surreal. Everything is on offer, including porcupine ($250 – is it possible people really hunt these?), warthog ($300), on through a multitude of indistinguishable deer-like species, up to the big ticket items: $8,000 for a hippo, $14,000 for a buffalo, between $25,000 and $35,000 for a male lion, and between $50,000 and $100,000 for a rhino.

It was all quite weird, but I became intrigued by the element of pretence in what was being offered – the outfitters were selling an old-fashioned idea of man-against-nature while secretly working the scenery in the wings. There was a whiff of theme park about the whole thing.

Read more on safari hunting in South Africa here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/7329425.stm

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Plants and Animals

The ‘Best Book on the Market’ according to Eamonn Butler

April 13, 2008 By jennifer

bestbook.jpg

A lot of people blame ‘market failure’ for environmental problems like pollution or over-fishing. More often, though, it’s political failure that causes the problems, by preventing markets from even existing. Like in water. As I explain in my new book, The Best Book on the Market:

In the dry western states of the US, the ‘prior appropriation’ rule meant that those who first started to extract water from a stream long ago got priority over those coming later. That prompted people to extract water they didn’t need just to keep this right active. Other rules that water should go to ‘beneficial use’ meant that water for fish, wildlife and other public purposes came particularly scarce.

The solution, which took hold in the 1990s, is less regulation and more market, with people able to buy and sell rights to extract water. Then it is treated just like any other valuable resource conserved and nurtured precisely because it’s no longer ‘free’.

Africa has had similar experience in preserving wildlife, like elephants.

The obvious policy punishing anyone caught killing them does not work. Villagers will risk it, rather than see their harvest trampled underfoot. But the market has a solution: make the very rarity of these animals the basis for a business. Now, in game lodges across southern Africa, visitors pay handsomely to hunt (or just to watch and photograph) rare animals. So now, the local villagers see elephants as a source of income, not a pest: they dig water holes for them and use electric fences, rather than bullets, to protect their crops. This market-driven policy has led to a revival in many species that were once seriously threatened.

Over-fishing is another of those ‘tragedy of the commons’ problems where markets just aren’t given a chance. Except in some places. For example:

Scotland is world famous for its salmon streams. That’s because the rights to fish every inch of every river in Scotland are privately owned. The owners make a good business of issuing fishing permits to anglers, and so have a strong incentive to keep the rivers clean and well stocked. These valuable rights are jealously guarded: poaching is not considered quite as bad as high treason, but it’s close. The result is that Scotland’s salmon rivers are well maintained and not over-fished. The market nurtures the environment.

There are plenty of other examples. Tradable fishing permits are now helping to conserve fish stocks around Iceland. Tradable pollution permits are helping to limit emissions in part of the United States and Europe. Road pricing has reduced traffic congestion in London, Oslo, and other cities. Sure, none of these arrangements is perfect there is still too much politics, and too little market principles, in their design. But before we simply dismiss ‘market failure’, we should at least give markets a chance.

I hope my book will encourage our legislators to do just that. I’ve written like Freakonomics or The Undercover Economist in simple, personal, anecdotal terms that even politicians should be able to understand. It explains the power of markets, and the enormous care you have to take to preserve them. And, as in the examples above, how they can quickly and effectively solve problems that governments have struggled and failed to solve for years.

Eamonn Butler, Director,
Adam Smith Institute

Visit us and get our regular bulletin at http://wwww.adamsmith.org

Enjoy Europe’s favorite think-tank blog at http://www.adamsmith.org/blog

Browse our online bookstore at http://www.politicos.co.uk/adamsmith/

And read ‘The Best Book on the Market’
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Best-Book-Market-worrying-economy/dp/1906465053/

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Cosmic Rays, Clouds and Climate (Part 1)

April 13, 2008 By jennifer

There are a couple of emerging theories on clouds, and how they form, and in time these theories may blow away the current so-called consensus on anthropogenic global warming from carbon dioxide as a key driver of climate.

One of these theories concerns cosmic rays.

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned the words “cosmic rays” with some enthusiasm at a Sunday lunch and everyone looked a me with a degree of apprehension and no one asked me to “explain further”. I could see the minds of the 10 or so others at the table ticking over. They were probably thinking, “What on earth is she talking about?”.

Well, I was about to attend a lecture by Dr Eigil Friis-Christensen, the director of the Danish National Space Centre.

This centre has published research suggesting that satellite observations of cloud cover and laboratory observations of aerosol formation indicate climate is signifcantly affected by the cosmic ray flux, modulated by the solar magnetic field.

Mittagong 035 copy .jpg
Slide from presentation by Eigil Friis-Christensen, Mittagong, April 5, 2008

Current United Nation’s IPCC climate models do not incorporate the influence of cosmic rays and therefore according to Dr Friis-Christensen can not hope to predict future climate.

The week before Dr Friis-Christensen gave his lecture at Mittagong, a paper was published suggesting the potential influence of cosmic rays was over-rated. Bloggers Lubos Motl and Nir Shaviv discuss the problems with the Sloan & Wolfendale paper which was given significant exposure by the BBC.

More to come on cosmic rays in part 2 of this post.
——————-
see also my blog post:
Graeme Pearman Claims Antarctica is Warming (Global Warming and The Cosmos, Part 1)
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002905.html

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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