Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for March 2008

I Heard the Bomb that Rocked Times Square, New York

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A bomb exploded at the military recruiting centre in Times Square, New York, early this morning. I am staying at the New York Marriott Marquis in Times Square and heard the explosion. It was just before 4am and I was working at my laptop. I wondered what the very loud explosive noise was. My window on the 34th floor looks north, the bomb went off just to the south east of the hotel. I didn’t see any smoke or flames so kept working on my last blog post on the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change.

Just after 5am I dressed to go walking, it is my last day in New York and I planned to visit the site of the World Trade Centre bombing. When I exited the hotel I found myself in the middle of a crime scene.

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Times Square, about 6am Thursday March 6, 2008

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Times Square, about 6am Thursday March 6, 2008

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View from 6th Avenue towards 7th Avenue, about 6am Thursday March 6, 2008

A camera man told me someone had bombed the recruitment centre. I had planned to walk down 7th Avenue but I was directed north and so I walked across to 6th Avenue then headed south for the Financial District.

Once past the crime scene no-one seemed to know that there had just been a bombing.

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Early morning of Thursday March 6, 2008, New York

I decided to detour through the West Village and wharf area and then enjoyed the view of the Hudson River.

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The Hudson River, New York, Thursday March 6, 2008

By the time I made it to the corner of Chambers and Church Street decided I didn’t want to visit the site of a previous terrorist attack anymore. So I ducked into a diner for breakfast and then caught a cab back to the Theatre District – corner of 6th Avenue and 36th Street – where I had seen a sign in the window of a hairdressing salon saying they opened at 8am and no appointment was necessary. I knew I needed a hair cut but hadn’t had time to get one before the conference. I was at the Jean Pierre Hair Salon by 8.30am and had my hair cut and blow drier by Gilbert. As I walked back to the hotel a kind New Yorker took my photograph in front of the bomb site.

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Military Recruiting Centre, Times Square, Thursday morning, March 6, 2008

Luckily no one appears to have been hurt in the explosion.

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Read about another important event in Times Square this last week but that has not attracted much media attention:
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002813.html
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002820.html

Climate Change Conference, New York – Day 3, In Review

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I’ve already reported on the standing ovation given to Vaclav Klaus following his speech at breakfast on day 3 of the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change in New York.

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President of the Czech Republic Vaclav Klaus addressing delegates at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change

There were two keynote speakers at each meal.

William Gray spoke after President Klaus and to the title ‘Oceans, Not Carbon Dioxide are Driving Climate’ and in particular about the circulation of water from the North Pole by way of the “Great Ocean Conveyor Belt” – Thermohaline Circulation (THC) – and the importance of the highly saline Atlantic Ocean.

Dr Gray has worked in the observational and theoretical aspects of tropical meteorological research for more than 40 years including studies of broad-scale cumulus interactions, processes associated with tropical cyclone structure, development and movement. And I will admit to not understanding all of his presentation, so I am going to say no more than that while acknowledging that carbon dioxide, the sun, land use change and water vapour all impact climate, Dr Gray went on to explain that it is the oceans that really drive climate and that the associated changes in energy fields and atmospheric moisture are too complex and chaotic to integrate into climate models.

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A key slide from Dr Gray’s presentation.

After breakfast I headed to what is known at the Marriott Marquis as the Skylobby on the 16th floor to hear Marc Morano, Marlo Lewis and Michael Fox. The session on science and politics was introduced with reference to the so called scientific consensus and the suggestion was made that it is really a political consensus, not a scientific consensus.

Michael Fox is a nuclear specialist and he drew similarities in his speech between the current campaign against fossil fuels and the long standing campaign against nuclear energy. He suggested both reflected ‘illiteracy’ in the general public when it comes to science, maths and energy and spoke at length about environmental activists being against nuclear and hydro – yet these are the only real alternative to fossil fuels. His comments about activists being well organised and using regulation, litigation and/or taxation to attack the nuclear industry were interesting.

He finished with a quote from a Washington Congressman that “in my district it is political suicide to be rational on nuclear issues.”

I am familiar with the work of second speaker Marlo Lewis and in particular his comprehensive critique of Al Gore’s book ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ which you can find here: http://www.cei.org/pages/ait_response-book.cfm . But I had trouble following much of his speech at the conference because it was about the complexity and history of US environmental legislation the implications of which he was hopefully exaggerating because is it really possible that litigation could close down the US economy. Dr Marlo spoke about ‘ethanolism’ as an addiction which has swept over Washington and went into great detail about National Ambient Air Quality Standards and how government legislators could set the standard for carbon dioxide lower than current levels!

Marc Morano followed Marlo Lewis and I have already posted on his presentation here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002818.html . I will just add that Mr Morano also said polar bear numbers are at historical highs yet it is likely they will be listed as endangered.

I only caught part of the last session in the Skylobby which included some discussion on the Christian lobby and their links with the AGW lobby. The size of this constituency in the US runs into the tens of millions.

Instead of hearing more speakers I ended up joining UK resident and social anthropologist Benny Peiser and famous economist David Henderson for a pot of tea and some discussion on Level 8. Of course the pot was just hot water but we put the teabags into the pot rather than our cups – as the Americans get this so wrong.

Lunch was delicious; a delicate green rocket salad followed by a large piece of salmon on a wholesome risotto. The speakers were also great. Dr Roy Spencer is a principle research scientists for the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the US Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite and his presentation was entitled ‘Recent Evidence for Reduced Climate Sensitivity’. While at the morning session William Gray suggested oceans drive climate, Dr Spencer’s key point was that “if there is one organising principle it is precipitation systems” (rainfall). He explained his interest in temperature anomalies since the launch of the NASA Aqua satellite in 2002 and the detailed data this satellite collects including on intraseasonal oscillations in troposhere temperatures. I was fascinated to hear how the satellite data has helped understanding of how clouds change as they evolve and the strong negative cloud feedback during troposphere warming. This is not how the climate models behave – they suggest a strong positive feedback. Dr Spencer also explained how when his findings were published last August there was no media interest to his astonishment given then importance of the findings.

In an attempt to move with the opinion within his discipline that if you can’t “put it in numbers in a climate model all you are doing is hand waving”, Dr Spencer developed his own climate model, what he described as the ‘world’s smallest climate model’.

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Slide from Roy Spencer’s presentation.

What the model showed was that the real climate system (as opposed to the virtual modelled system) is much less sensitive than most modellers assume.

Dr Spencer’s talk was perhaps the most important at the conference and his conclusions including:
1. Recent research supports reduced climate sensitivity including that tropical intra-seasonal osciallations show strong negative feedback and observational estimates of feedback are likely bias due to neglect of natural variability, and
2. The accommodation of these results by climate modellers in their cloud parameterization could greatly reduce climate model projections of future warming.

The last speaker for the conference was ABC News correspondent John Stossel. He gave an interesting talk on ‘scares’ and how and why the media reports them.

In his closing remarks for the conference Heartland Institute President and CEO Joseph Blast drew parallels between our conference and the small group of economists who gathered at Mont Pelerin, near Montreux, Switzerland, to discuss the state and the possible fate of classic liberalism in 1947. Mr Blast suggested that our gathering in New York will hopefully mark the beginnings of an intellectual movement that will help turn-around the politics of climate change.

I walked and napped in the afternoon before meeting some conference delegates – Bob Ferguson and Carol Ferguson, Bob Carter and Ann Carter, blogger Joe De’Aleo and Astrophysicist Willie Soon – for a light dinner and a glass of wine (or two) in the hotel.

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Conference delegates Bob Carter, Joe De Áleo and Willie Soon not in a spaceship, but rather in a lounge at the New York Marriott Marquis.

I would like to again thank conference organisers and sponsors The Heartland Institute and also the people of New York who have helped make my short say here truly memorable.

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You can read my perspective on Day 1 of the conference here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html and Day 2 here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002813.html

Some media from the conference is here:

Bob Carter on the Global Warming Conference
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/198/6724/

Inconvenient Thermometers
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/196/6727/?ck=1

Glenn talks with Lord Monckton
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/196/6783/?ck=1

Roger Pielke Jr Interviewed by The Breakthrough Blog

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There is a very interesting interview with Roger Pielke Jr over at the Breakthrough Blog:

The following is an interview with Breakthrough Senior Fellow Roger Pielke, Jr. Roger has done pioneering work on proper role of scientists and experts in society. He is an expert on the societal impacts of natural hazards, particularly hurricanes and floods, and a strong advocate of adaptation as a vital part of climate change policy. He is a guest contributer to the Breakthrough blog, and writes his own blog, Prometheus.

Read the full interview here.

Meeting Marc Morano

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A highlight of The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change for me was meeting Marc Morano.

He is a former journalist with CNS, reporter and producer for the Rush Limbaugh Television Show and also American Investigator. Now communications director for the Republicans on the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works in Washinton amongst his many activities and responsibilities he also finds time to run an award winning blog.

Mr Morano gave two papers at the conference. I sat in on Wednesday morning’s session on politics and science which also included presentations from Marlo Lewis and Michael Fox.

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Marc Morano chatting with a delegate before the session.

Mr Morano began with an overview of the history of the politics of climate change including a quote from Newsweek magazine of April 28, 1975, ““The longer the planners delay the more difficult they will find it to deal with climate change once the results become grim reality.”

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Marc Morano speaking at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change

He went on to talk about carbon based economies as the greatest liberators of mankind in the history of the planet facilitating the “20th Century Miracle” including the lowering of infant mortality and increasingly life expectancy.

Following the presentations Mr Morano answered a question about the value of focus groups in understanding public opinion on global warming and helping to formulate appropriate public responses. He said that what was most needed from politicians was simply “political courage” including the courage to tell it as it is.

After the session I was privileged to meet not only Marc but also his mother and nephew who were also at the conference.

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Marc Morano with his mother at The Marriott Marquis, New York.

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You can read my perspective on day 1 of the conference here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html , day 2 here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002813.html and breakfast with Hon Vaclav Klaus on day 3 here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002816.html.

Thanks again to conference sponsor’s The Heartland Institute

Breakfast with Czech President Vaclav Klaus

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The 500-strong contingent of skeptics currently in New York for The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change were up early for a second day. Breakfast was again at 7am and the first speaker was given a standing ovation – a man who had travelled all the way from Prague, the President of the Czech Republic Vaclav Klaus.

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Vaclav Klaus is a well know global warming skeptic and was re-elected President just two weeks ago.

In his speech President Klaus talked about the “robust relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth” and went on to suggest there are three types of countries in Europe based on their emissions profile and level of economic growth. He described the less developed countries of the European Union (EU), including Greece, has trying to “catch-up” since the signing of Kyoto and in the process increasing their level of carbon emissions by 53 percent. The post communist countries were described as seeing their heavy industry disappear and experiencing a decline in GDP and a drop in emissions of 33 percent Then there are countries like France and Germany which have seen their emissions increase on average by 4 percent.

The President said that “the dream” to reduce emissions in the EU by 70 percent in the next 30 years could only be achieved if there was a dramatic de-industrialization of Europe (likely associated with a dramatic drop in GDP), a dramatic drop in population or a technological revolution.

President Klaus outlined previous attempts in Europe, for example the Soviet Union under Brezhnev, to impose radical economic change and the “innocence of climate alarmists” to currently mastermind society including their belief in their own omnipotence.

The President concluded with comment that “uncompromising lessons about the collapse of communism” need to be re-learnt:

“We have to restart the discussion about the very nature of government and about the relationship between the individual and society. Now it concerns the whole of mankind, not just the citizens of one particular country. To discuss this means to look at the canonically structured theoretical discussions about socialism (or communism) and to learn the uncompromising lessons from the inevitable collapse of communism 18 years ago. It is not about climatology. It is about freedom. This should be the main message from our conference.”

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Standing ovation, including from London-based Kendra Okonski and former advisor to Russian President Putin Andrei Illarionov . New York based Statistician William M Briggs is the tall guy in the background to the immediate left of Dr Illarionov.

Thanks again to conference sponsor’s The Heartland Institute .

More on day 3 soon.

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You can read a perspective on day 3 of the conference from William M Briggs here: http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/03/04/heartland-conference-day-3-and-wrap-up/.

You can read my perspective on day 1 of the conference here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html and day 2 here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002813.html .