Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for October 2007

RealClimate Debunks Flannery

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Australia’s leading climate alarmist was recently quoted in the Herald Tribune on the IPCC report due to be released in November:

Scientist: Global greenhouse gas emissions already beyond ‘worst-case’ scenario

SYDNEY, Australia: Strong worldwide economic growth has accelerated the level of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere to a dangerous threshold scientists had not expected for another decade, according to a leading Australian climate change expert.

Scientist Tim Flannery said a report by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change due to be released in November will contain new data showing that the level of climate-changing gases in the atmosphere has already reached critical levels.

RealCliimate disagrees slightly:

CO2 equivalents

Coalition of NGOs Busts Myths on Agriculture and Poverty: A Note from Caroline Boin

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On October 16 the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization celebrates World Food Day – and this year’s theme is “The Right to Food”. As well meaning as this campaign may be, it ignores the real reasons why the majority of farmers in developing countries are poor. In order to set out a better way for agriculture and development, The Sustainable Development Network is releasing a list of the worst myths which afflict the debate, two of which are below:

1. Myth: A country must produce its own food in order to feed itself in times of difficulty.

Reality: Markets and the freedom to trade are the best ways to improve food security and to reduce the cost of food. Trade means that resources are used more efficiently in each place – countries like Hong Kong, who cannot grow food, use their labour, capital, and knowledge to produce other goods and trade. On the other hand, many Sub-Saharan countries are nearing self-sufficiency – but hunger and poverty remain high.

The World Bank estimates that global free trade would add $287 billion to world income each year, half of that accruing in poor countries. Much of this would come from agriculture. Access to markets would allow poor farmers to generate income for themselves and their families, making it more likely for them to escape subsistence farming and poverty.

2. Myth: Wealthy countries should eliminate subsidies and trade barriers, but developing countries should not

Reality: Agricultural subsidies and regulations hurt the poorest farmers and consumers, while benefiting the elite – in rich and poor countries alike. As subsidized farmers in wealthy countries overproduce commodity crops like sugar and dump the surplus on world markets, prices are driven down – to the ultimate detriment of farmers in poor countries.

Moreover, around 70% of tariffs paid by developing countries are actually paid to other developing countries. This makes food difficult to obtain and artificially expensive.

Douglas Southgate, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University, commented:

“Governments need to get out of the way, cut restrictive tariffs, and remove state marketing boards, to allow businesses to work — because people are perfectly capable of feeding themselves, if only they were allowed to.”

For more myths and realities about agriculture, read:
“Agriculture and Poverty- Myths and Realities”, by the Sustainable Development Network– available for download at http://www.sdnetwork.net/files/pdf/Agriculture_and_Poverty.pdf

Hot Air from East Anglia Blows into Nature Magazine

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A new paper predictably makes a big splash in this week’s Nature magazine:

Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence

Katharine M. Willett1,2, Nathan P. Gillett1, Philip D. Jones1 & Peter W. Thorne2

Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK

Water vapour is the most important contributor to the natural greenhouse effect, and the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is expected to increase under conditions of greenhouse-gas-induced warming, leading to a significant feedback on anthropogenic climate change. Theoretical and modelling studies predict that relative humidity will remain approximately constant at the global scale as the climate warms, leading to an increase in specific humidity. Although significant increases in surface specific humidity have been identified in several regions and on the global scale in non-homogenized data, it has not been shown whether these changes are due to natural or human influences on climate. Here we use a new quality-controlled and homogenized gridded observational data set of surface humidity, with output from a coupled climate model, to identify and explore the causes of changes in surface specific humidity over the late twentieth century. We identify a significant global-scale increase in surface specific humidity that is attributable mainly to human influence. Specific humidity is found to have increased in response to rising temperatures, with relative humidity remaining approximately constant. These changes may have important implications, because atmospheric humidity is a key variable in determining the geographical distribution and maximum intensity of precipitation, the potential maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, and human heat stress16, and has important effects on the biosphere and surface hydrology.

Also in Nature News:

Humans have made the skies more moist

Study models rises in atmospheric water vapour.

Human activity is behind the rising levels of water vapour in the lower atmosphere over the past few decades, climatologists have concluded. The rises in humidity could affect patterns of extreme storms, they warn.

Nature’s editor likes it too:

Getting steamed up

………using a new data set of surface specific humidity observations, along with output from a coupled climate model, Willett et al. identify a significant increase in global mean surface specific humidity during the late twentieth century that is mainly attributable to human influence.

Luke Walker thinks the paper is significant and sent a link to ABC’s predictable take:

Rising humidity fuels greenhouse effect

We also had this report from the BBC in November 2005:

Water builds the heat in Europe

“Water vapour rather than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the main reason why Europe’s climate is warming, according to a new study.”

The BBC are up to speed with the new Nature paper:

Warmth makes the world more humid

I wonder how evaporation equalling precipitation globally over the past 20 years fits into this?

The paper also tries to make a link with increased tropical cyclones, but the case for a link is weak.

Scant publicity by comaprison for the recent Spencer et al paper ‘Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations’. Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 15, 9 August 2007.

Read the article ‘Global Warming and Nature’s Thermostat’ by Roy W. Spencer:

August 9, 2007 RESEARCH UPDATE!: Our peer-reviewed paper showing the natural cooling behavior of tropical cirrus clouds in response to warming has been published today in Geophysical Research Letters. (The UAH news release is here.) This natural cooling mechanism constitiutes a strong “negative feedback” (reducing warming tendencies), while all leading climate models have cirrus clouds behaving in a positive feedback manner (amplifying warming tendencies). As is usually the case in this business, however, there is no way to know with any level of confidence whether this mechanism is operating in the context of manmade global warming………

A Round Up of Climate Related Articles from Luke Walker

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Study finds global warming affecting bird migration

Climate change may not be noticeable to all humans yet, but the behaviour of birds suggests the seasons have already changed.

A researcher at the weather bureau has found that some spring migrating birds are arriving many days earlier than they used to.

Short-term targets key to tackling climate change: report

A new report says a 30 per cent reduction in greenhouse emissions by 2020 is an achievable target for Australia.

Turnbull hints at ratifying new climate change agreement

Federal Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull has signalled Australia may ratify the next international climate change deal that comes into effect when the Kyoto Protocol expires.

World energy revolution needed for climate: U.S.

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Monday the world needs a revolution on energy that transcends oil, gas and coal to prevent problems from climate change.

“Ultimately, we must develop and bring to market new energy technologies that transcend the current system of fossil fuels, carbon emissions and economic activity. Put simply, the world needs a technological revolution,” Rice told delegates at a special U.N. conference on climate change.