Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for October 14, 2007

How to Create and Protect a Consensus

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We are all aware of a claimed consensus on climate science, although what the consensus actually is and how far it goes has yet to be defined, in my view. That is not the issue raised here. A book authored by Janis, I. L. & Mann, L. (1977) Decision-making: A psychological analysis of conflict, choice, and commitment (New York Free Press), explores the concept of ‘Group Think,’ which shows a remarkable parallel with the way the climate science consensus is operated and protected.

Eight symptoms of Group Think are listed below:

1. Illusion of Invulnerability: Members ignore obvious danger, take extreme risk, and are overly optimistic.

2. Collective Rationalization: Members discredit and explain away warning contrary to group thinking.

3. Illusion of Morality: Members believe their decisions are morally correct, ignoring the ethical consequences of their decisions.

4. Excessive Stereotyping: The group constructs negative stereotypes of rivals outside the group.

5. Pressure for Conformity: Members pressure any in the group who express arguments against the group’s stereotypes, illusions, or commitments, viewing such opposition as disloyalty.

6. Self-Censorship: Members withhold their dissenting views and counter-arguments.

7. Illusion of Unanimity: Members perceive falsely that everyone agrees with the group’s decision; silence is seen as consent.

8. Mind guards: Some members appoint themselves to the role of protecting the group from adverse information that might threaten group complacency.

I can certainly see how ignoring the dangers of concentrating all of our efforts on futile CO2 reduction, ad hominem attacks, personal smears, US State Climatologists losing their jobs, and the likes of RealClimate plus some media outlets as ‘Mind guards’ fits into this framework. No doubt some blog readers will agree and can think of other examples. Others, of course, will disagree.

Thanks to John McLean for alerting me to the concept of ‘Group Think.’

200 Year Payback for Saving Energy at Home

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You lucky Aussies have more potential for domestic solar energy than us poor Brits stuck in the rather dull UK. With global warming hysteria at fever pitch, and the apparent belief that we can contol the weather or climate by attempting to reduce the UK’s 2 per cent contribution to global man-made CO2 emissions, from 1 per cent of the world’s population, we are now required to provide an Energy Performance Certificate as part of a Home Information Pack when we sell our home. Currently this only applies to homes with 3 or more bedrooms (Biggs Towers has 4), but will eventually be extended to cover all homes. There are 8 measures that are needed to secure a rating of A or B, as a opposed to a poor rating of F or G. My home was only built in 2000, so has modern energy saving features such as cavity wall insulation, thick fibreglass loft insulation, double glazed UPVC windows, and polystyrene slab under the downstairs concrete floors. I’ve used compact fluorescent bulbs since they came on the market quite a few years ago, in some of our light fittings.

Today’s Times (13th October) has an article featuring a study by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors about the cost of installing energy saving measures and the time taken to recoup the investment. Apparently, installing solar panels for water heating costs around £5,000 and would save only £24 per year on average. This means it could take up to 208 years to recoup the investment. Installing all 8 measures could cost over £23,000 and take 48 years to recoup.

The Times article is entitled ‘Saving energy at home could take 200 years to repay its cost.’ Thanks to Woody for pointing it out.