Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for July 2007

IPCC Forecasting has No Validity

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“Who would have thought that the climate models used as the basis of IPCC greenhouse forecasts would violate 72 of 89 principles of forecasting. That’s the claim from forecastingprinciples.com a site run by J. Scott Armstrong,
Professor of Marketing at the Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania. He and Kesten C Green from Monash University have published an audit of the forecasts from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The auditors come to the view that while the scientists might know something about physics, they understand little about the science of forecasting…

Read the complete blog post by Graham Young here @ http://ambit-gambit.nationalforum.com.au/archives/002137.html

Read the paper ‘Global Warming Audit, Public Policy Forecasting’ by Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green presented at the International Symposium on Forecasting, 27 June 2004, Times Square, New York here @ http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/global_warming_audit.html

Rehabilitating Carbon Dioxide: Lavoisier Group 2007 Workshop

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The Lavoisier Group 2007 workshop was held at the Victoria Hotel, Little Collins Street, Melbourne from 29 – 30 June.

Presentations from the workshop ‘Rehabilitating Carbon Dioxide’ will be added to the Lavoisier.com.au site as they become available and include:

Professor Bob Carter on ‘The Myth of Dangerous Human-
Caused Climate Change’ @ http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/Conf2007/Carter2007.pdf

Dr David Evans on ‘My Life with The AGO and Other Reflections’ @ http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/Conf2007/D-Evans2007.pdf

Tree Chop Campaign

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Frustrated with the many laws and regulations in Australia that now make it difficult for farmers to manage trees, including woody weed regrowth, on their land a TREE CHOP CAMPAIGN kicked off on 1st July.

The NSW Farmers Association has failed to condemn the campaign that encourages farmers to cut down trees. The Australian Beef Association is actively supporting it.

Jeff Angel, Director of Total Environment Centre, said farmers were misled if they believed these actions would affect politicians in their favour. According to the Wilderness Society website: “Environment groups are calling for a criminal investigation into the activities of all individuals and groups who have publicly incited illegal land clearing, and for action to be taken against the ringleaders.”

Not so many years ago environmental activists rather than farmers would have been more inclined to break the law. Now it is once law abiding farmers who feel so aggrieved they have resorted to civil disobedience.

Paul Biggs To Start Blogging

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Since beginning this blog in April 2004, I’ve received lots of information and opinion from readers. I’ve really appreciated the notes that I’ve been able to publish from people like Libby, Ann, Ian, Luke, Roger, Cinders and others.

I’ve also occasionally published comment from Paul Biggs, who should not be confused with Paul Williams who I also occasionally publish.

Paul Biggs is now going to join Neil Hewett as someone who occasionally posts directly to this blog and will look after the blog when I visit Indonesia again later this month.

Paul Biggs is a Biological Sciences graduate who has worked in medical research at Birmingham University, UK, since 1979. He became interested in climate change after watching a BBC documentary in 2003 called ‘The Big Chill,’ which claimed that the Gulf Stream could be cut off within 20 years, resulting in the UK having climate like Alaska.

Worried by this, he decided to investigate the claim in climate journals that he has access to at Birmingham University. It soon became clear to him that the Gulf Stream shut down was more scare that substance. As a result, he now spends much of his spare time debunking the claims that there will be a man-made climate catastrophe due to carbon dioxide.

paul.biggs.jpg
Paul and his partner

More Reading from Marc Morano (Part 4)

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1. Solar Greed? Humans accused of overusing the Sun!

Excerpt: HUMANS are just one of the millions of species on Earth, but we use up almost a quarter of the sun’s energy captured by plants – the most of any species. The human dominance of this natural resource is affecting other species, reducing the amount of energy available to them by almost 10 per cent, scientists report.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/human-greed-takes-lions-share-of-solar-energy/2007/07/02/1183351126304.html

2. Former Colorado State Climatologist Roger Pielke, SR. Spanks Down RealClimate.org’s latest Propaganda Climate Science Responds to Real Climate’s Web Posting Of July 2 2007

Excerpts: The absence of Real Climate commenting on these [peer-reviewed] papers is by itself evidence that this website is not interesting in debating the science issues that we raise in our papers. & Real Climate, rather than engaging in the science issues raised by the photographic documentation of such a key data set in the assessment of climate change, has elected to be defensive and has sought to transfer this issue into a political debate.

http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/07/02/climate-science-responds-to-real-climates-web-posting-of-july-2-2007

3. BBC: Poll finds majority of public believes global warming fears ‘over hyped’

Excerpt: The public believes the effects of global warming on the climate are not as bad as politicians and scientists claim, a poll has suggested. There was a feeling the problem was exaggerated to make money, it found.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6263690.stm

4. Americans Oppose Ratifying Kyoto Protocol

Excerpt: Many people in the United States would disagree with their government ratifying an international treaty seeking to reduce global pollution, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive released by UPI. 47.9 per cent of respondents think the U.S. should not sign [Editor’s note: Actually ratify] the Kyoto Protocol.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16355

5. Global Warming May Cause Higher Pizza Prices

http://global-warming.accuweather.com/2007/07/global_warming_may_cause_highe_1.html

6. Singer Melissa Etheridge sees Gore Resurrection as source of hope

Excerpt: Gore has “actually has rekindled my hope for America and the world, to see one man so beaten down by our mistakes and our apathy hold onto his core belief that leadership can take us into a better future, and keep our world from imploding.

http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20070630/ent/ent5.html

7. UK government rules fish feel pain, draws up ‘bill of rights’ to ban inhumane treatment

Excerpt: The government has ruled that fish may feel pain and will draw up a charter of rights to protect them from inhumane treatment in research laboratories,

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article2010193.ece

8. Lessons from a 5,000 Year Hurricane Record

“An article has appeared in the prestigious journal Nature entitled “Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Niño and the West African monsoon.” The title suggests that someone has a 5,000 year record of hurricane activity and that the activity is controlled by El Niño and weather in West Africa – there is no suggestion that hurricane activity is controlled by greenhouse gases, planetary temperature, or sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/07/03/lessons-from-a-5000-year-hurricane-record/

9. Manure pit’s methane fumes kill five on Virginia family farm

Deadly methane gas emanating from a dairy farm’s manure pit

killed five people, including four members of a Mennonite family, authorities said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070703/ap_on_re_us/methane_deaths_1;_ylt=Ah0jYklBpxbFR5_Ve.uf53YE1vAI

10. Schwarzenegger accused of playing politics with state’s warming law

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/07/03/MNGPNQQ3211.DTL

11. Broadcasters eye 2 billion people for Live Earth

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=entertainmentNews&storyID=2007-07-03T060445Z_01_N25304775_RTRIDST_0_ENTERTAINMENT-LIVEEARTH-COL.XML

12. Forecasters see no tropical storm activity

http://www.bradenton.com/breakingnews/story/88233.html

13. California drought creates booming business for snake wranglers

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/nation/4933884.html

14. Global warming could increase U.S. death rate

http://uk.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUKKUA26100320070702

15. Ask Al Gore a Question: Live Webcast on Thursday, July 5

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/07/al_gore_on_live.php

16. Climate change and the world’s poor

Excerpt: “Climate change is arguably the gravest threat ever faced by humanity.”

http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=6038

17. Study claims capitalism is bad for men’s health

Excerpt: Communism may be oppressive, but it seems as though capitalism is bad for men’s health, according to a recent study which found significant increases in mortality rates after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=070701161147.2coeamzy&show_article=1&cat=0

18. 116-DEGREES PREDICTED FOR VEGAS THIS WEEK; 127 FOR DEATH VALLEY…

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=vef&wwa=Excessive%20Heat%20Warning

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Thanks to Marc Morano for all these links.