Archives for February 7, 2007

Hi Jennifer,

I’ve only just noticed this week’s Jakarta floods.

Most of the reportage has concentrated on the immediate disaster and the associated political recriminations, but I see in the Sydney Morning Herald that, “meteorologists have claimed climate change contributed to the disaster, with a delayed monsoon season bringing unusually high rainfall.”

I think this could be worth a post in itself, for a number of reasons.

First of all, this is a major weather disaster. Almost half the capital of south-east Asia’s biggest country just spend a week under water. This is happening just to our north.

Second, it would be of interest to understand the cause and effect here. How often does this happen? Why does it happen? The capital is flooded annually and there were big floods in 1996 and 2002.

According to the Jakarta Post, “the floods are worse than the last major inundation in 2002. It has been argued they are the result of weather abnormalities that occur every five years.”

Third, perhaps we could have a general discussion about the evidential value, if any, of such large events in the AGW [global warming] debate. The debate over Atlantic hurricanes like Katrina may serve as a prototype.

Cheers, Mitchell Porter

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This is an edited version of a note from Mitchell originally posted as a comment here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/001874.html . Thanks Mitch.