My daughter turns 18 on 19th February 2007 and we are planning a party. February is often wet in Brisbane. We want to invite lots of people and hold the party outside in the backyard. Will it rain on us?
According to a book I’ve been reading by Ken Ring entitled ‘Predict Weather for Australia: Almanac and Isobaric Maps 2007’ published by Random House we are perhaps better to wait until late March to hold the party.
On page 121 he writes that between the 19th and 26th March, Brisbane can expect the longest dry and sunny spell of the month.
In contrast Ring writes on page 87 that the first 10 days of February will bring a passing front and moderate rainfall, then between the 15th and 20th there will be persistently overcast days and heavier amounts of rain and the last week of February will see another front bringing more rain.
The book has detailed predictions for all of 2007 with a focus on Australia’s capital cities.
Ring bases his predictions on lunar cycles in particular drawing on five of the lunar cycles known most to astronomers on the basis each creates an orbiting pattern that influences weather. He writes that these cycles feed into each other and fit like cogs in a gearbox with such celestial precision that after each lunar cycle of around 130 years, the moon returns to the same place in the sky with respect to the background of stars.
The five cycles are: 1. the cycle of the phase (new moon to new moon), 2. the cycle of declination (north to south and north again), 3. the apsidal cycle (moon speed change), 4. the perigee(closest to furthest away each month), and 5. the cycle of moonrise and moon set timing (air-tide in and out).
Ring explains that combinations of these lunar cycles produce weather peculiarities and when peaks in two or three cycles occur on or near the same day, extreme weather can result.
Perhaps not surprisingly Ring is a global warming skeptic.
To what extent should I consider Ring’s predictions in the planning of my daughter’s 18th birthday party?
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.