Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for August 7, 2006

Foxes Responsible for Extinctions

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“To those counting extinctions, watch the impact of the deliberate introduction of foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and subsequent failures to control them in Tasmania for a species extinction or two over the next couple of human generations.

This was the last significant safety zone for Australia’s unique small mammals and will surely allow some wonderful peer reviwed papers that describe the decline as we sit back and watch it happen. We are about to see the final stages of the march to extinction of a vast array of unique animals,” wrote Linton Staples* at an earlier blog post on mammalian extinctions.

According to the Tasmanian Parks and Wildlife Service:

“The European red fox (Vulpes vulpes) was introduced to mainland Australia as early as the 1850’s. Since that time the fox has inflicted enormous impacts on the native wildlife of Australia, being implicated in the extinction of many native animals. Indeed, Australia’s apalling record of mammal extinctions in the last 200 years – the worst in the world – is in no small part due to the fox.

…The fox represents the single most devastating threat to Tasmania’s native mammals and birds. This island State is recognised as a national and international fauna haven due to the lack of foxes, but should the species become established here all of Tasmania’s native land animals would be at risk.

Threatened and high conservation significance species at risk [if the fox establishes in Tasmania] would include:

eastern barred bandicoot
Tasmanian bettong
long nosed potoroo
eastern quoll
southern brown bandicoot
long tailed mouse
velvet furred rat
New Holland mouse
hooded plover
little tern
fairy tern
ground parrot
ground thrush
painted button quail
great crested grebe
green and gold bell frog
tussock skink
glossy grass skink.

The Tasmanian pademelon and Tasmanian bettong, both of which thrive in Tasmania, are now extinct on the mainland because of the fox. The mainland eastern barred bandicoot has been reduced to a mere 200 surviving individuals because of the fox. The young of unique species such as the Tasmanian devil, spotted tail quoll that are left unattended in dens are highly vulnerable to fox predation.

More widespread species like ducks, shorebirds, ground nesting birds, blue tongue lizards, mountain dragons, skinks and frogs are all highly at risk.”

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* Linton is the Managing Director of Animal Control Technologies which sells FOXOFF® fox bait.

Why We Argue Over AGW: Walter Starck

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I was sent the following note from Walter Starck:

“The Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) debate is not about a paradigm shift or even about a basic theory. No one is arguing that CO2 does not absorb IR or that burning fossil fuel does not add CO2 to the atmosphere. In essence the AGW debate is about whether increasing CO2 by a few hundredths of one percent of the atmosphere will have catastrophic consequences on global climate. AGW proponents claim scientific certainty that it will and cite as proof a 0.6 degree C increase in average global temperature over the past century, a putative increase in extreme weather events and predictions of ongoing future warming based on computer models of global climate. Skeptics find significant uncertainty in the amount, causes and consequences of any warming and in the accuracy of the models. They point to major doubts regarding the amount and cause of recent warming, past extremes that equal or exceed recent ones, benefits of CO2 enrichment plus numerous simplifications, guesses and omissions in the models as well as wide discrepancies between them.

No amount or strength of argument seems likely to resolve this debate before reality irrefutably intrudes. Barring a major global recession anthropogenic CO2 emissions will continue to increase for at least the next few decades and the truth or fantasy of AGW will become increasingly apparent.

On the skeptic side a good case has been put forward for an important role in solar variability on climate via an effect on cloud cover. This theory fits well with past climatic fluctuations and most importantly, it predicts future ones. Of these, the most significant is the Landscheidt Minimum around 2030 which should be comparable to the LIA.

Whether anthropogenic CO2 is forcing global climate toward catastrophic warming or solar cycles are the dominant control should become strongly indicative in the next decade and near conclusive over the following one. For skeptics to win this debate by superior evidence and argumentation would probably take longer than letting reality settle it. The more important role for skeptics is to provide an opposing balance against hysteria and to define what is to be learned from the whole affair. This is unlikely to come from true believers no matter what the actual outcome.

AGW proponents on the whole seem to be afflicted with a desire for certainty and intolerance of any suggestion of doubt while skeptics seem more concerned about dogmatism and false claims of certainty than they are of the possible reality of AGW. This difference in perspective reflects a fundamental divergence in the very essence of the scientific enterprise. Is it primarily a belief , a sphere of activity and a career or is it a particular philosophical approach to understanding based on empirical evidence, logical consistency and verifiability? Is the higher aim to provide authority for belief or to keep it open to question and better understanding? Is there a deficiency in scientific training that produces highly trained technicians but not the doctors of philosophy their degrees proclaim?

Also inherent in this divergence of perspective is the attitude to risk. Is it something to avoided at all costs (as enshrined in the precautionary principle) or something to be accepted or rejected on the basis of evaluation?

In the case of AGW it increasingly seems that such underlying issues may well be more important than the actual debate itself.

Walter Starck“