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Archives for July 2006

Dams Leaving Us High & Dry: Ian Mackay

July 19, 2006 By jennifer

Ian Mackay [1] has just returned from visiting south east Queensland’s many water storages. He clocked up 1,800 kilometres over the four days and this is what he found:

1. In pictures: http://www.stoppress.com.au/ .

2. In words:

“Dam after dam, dams well away from areas of population pressure, were well below critical level. Several were even at zero.

It was seeing the two and a half metre tree growing just a little above the waterline at Moogerah Dam, though, that really drove it home.

Plainly the dam hadn’t been filled beyond this level for years.

Dates scrawled at the side of the spillway wall, indicating when the dam had overflowed only confirmed it. There was the mark for the memorable Australia Day floods of 1974, but nothing after 1976. The towering, impressively curved dam wall, tightly wedged between two massive hills, had been touted as something of an engineering feat when completed in the early sixties.

Despite all the hopes behind its construction, it was clear that it had been holding back a dwindling water reserve for years.

Moogerah Dam — the name means either “place of storms” or “meeting place of storms” depending who you ask — is currently holding only 7% of its capacity.

The water ski cottages hugging what was once its shore line and the twice-extended boat ramp tell the tale of a water level that has receded over a much longer time period than just the last few years.

One friend tells me of watching enormous eels thunder over the spillway back in the early seventies. Another speaks wistfully of water skiing over the top of what is now a great isthmus jutting into the dwindling pond. Tall grass now covers the spillway area and fishermen drive the considerable length of the isthmus to cast a line. Pelicans, stilts and cormorants share the receding shoreline with grazing cattle in scenes that wouldn’t be out of place around a drying billabong much further inland.

But Moogerah is far from alone.

Most of the Sunwater storages throughout the southeast are well under a third full [2].

Nearby Maroon Dam, which also drains the impressive towering peaks of the Border Ranges stands at 21%; Bjelke-Petersen Dam collecting water from a wide catchment in the South Burnett, including the Bunya Mountains holds just 3% of its 125 000 megalitre capacity.

Atkinson Dam, near Lowood is at 0%; its picnic grounds understandably deserted, its remaining water puddle far off in the distance behind the water skiing signs.

All these dams share a common thread of optimism, the hope that the provision of a dependable water supply would somehow “drought-proof” the state and facilitate enhanced agriculture and easier living. To many who share this dream that dams equate to a certainty of water supply, the present crisis is wholly attributable to our not having added to our portfolio of existing dams.

Now, four decades on, it might be as well to reflect on the reality.

South East Queensland gets nightly updates of the levels of the major domestic storages. Somerset, Wivenhoe and North Pine Dams are collectively at around 29%. These figures look almost respectable compared to those previously mentioned, but anxiety about their low levels has lead to severe restrictions.

Property owners on the shores of Somerset Dam speak of having to regularly extend their fences out into what had been dam, of their cattle now grazing on land recently exposed and now covered in grass.

The simple fact is that our dams are failing us.

It’s not the engineers’ fault. They built dams that held back water when it rained, but there’s that other variable that is well out of the control of every engineer, and also, as he has repeatedly rued, our Premier.

“I can’t make it rain,” says Peter Beattie.

What he could do, though, is recognize that our water crisis comes from an almost total reliance on dams for water supply. Dams in the area of greatest population growth aren’t in fact the lowest. Changing rainfall patterns mean that Moogerah is getting fewer of the storms that gave it both its name and its desirability as a dam-site.

Instead, his assessment of the situation is that if our existing dams aren’t holding enough water, then plainly we need more of them……… if your wallet doesn’t contain much money, then obviously you need more wallets.

His newly announced additions include a mega-dam at Traveston across the Mary River, a smaller dam at Wyaralong across Teviot Brook near Boonah and raising of both Borumba and Hinze dams and a few other storages as well.

It’s an assessment he hopes will be shared by voters, at least those who still share that axiomatic “dam equals more water” connection. Many though, are questioning how dams that can’t possibly begin to fill until at least 2011 will be any use at all in a crisis that could well crunch in just two years time if significant rains don’t fall.

The Beattie government’s newest, the Paradise Dam that drowns the Burnett River, northwest of Childers, was recently named in an international list of failed dams. It was hoped that after the wall was completed last year, the dam would fill quickly but it is currently at only 15%. It is an expensive fulfillment (no pun intended) of an electoral promise for which we’ll still be paying years hence.

You can understand why there’s far more outcry about the Mary and Wyaralong Dams than from just those who stand to be displaced. Councils the length of the Mary have spoken out in opposition, and rural groups, environmentalists and church groups have added a long list of concerns.

Many are comparing Premier Beattie’s approach and vision to that of Joh Bjelke-Petersen.

Making the long walk, down through the cracked mud toward the receding shoreline of Bjelke-Petersen Dam, you can almost feel the vision splendid evaporating as surely as the dam’s contents.

While many farmers we encountered were making the most of the opportunity to excavate and deepen their dams in anticipation of eventual rain, no such activity was taking place in the bigger dams. It seemed it was simply easier to just build a new one.

At a time when most water authorities are diversifying their supply options, shouldn’t a first priority be reflecting on the success of the status quo?

The red dots tell the story.

Without good run-off rain, a dam is just an expensive wall.

It’s time we faced the fact that our dams aren’t working.“

———————–
[1] Ian Mackay is a teacher, poet and environmentalist from the Mary Valley. For the last ten years he has been President of the Conondale Range Committee, one of the Sunshine Coast’s longest serving environment groups.

[2] Sunwater information comes from www.sunwater.com.au click on lower left hand information option.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Water

Global Warming Icon ‘Hit For Six’

July 18, 2006 By jennifer

If you do a search at this blog site for ‘hockey stick’, Google will provide you with about 70 links and the first will link to a question I posted a year ago:

“What is the evidence for the medieval warm period? My understanding is that the Vikings were able to settle Greenland and grow grapes in Canada over several hundreds of years because the climate was significantly warmer. Yet this period is not evident in the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph.”

The Graph
hockey stick graph_blog
[from BBC News]

The graph was the creation of Dr Michael Mann, et al, and was used by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to conclude in their influential 2001 assessment report that the 1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year of the last millenium.

Indeed the ‘hockey stick’ has emerged as something of an icon for believers in anthropogenic global warming (AGW), while global warming skeptics have dismissed it as shoddy science and another example of ‘believers’ using models to support a position at odd with the evidence in particular the existence of the medieval warm period.

Now a prominent statistician who is also a Univeristy Professor, Chair of the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics, and a member of the board of the American Statistical Association, has published a rather damning report on the hockey stick. As Paul Williams commented in the thread following my blog post last Friday, “… the hockey stick has just been hit for six”!

Following are some of the conclusions from Dr Edward Wegman as summarized by the US House Committee on Energy and Commerce:

1. Mann et al., misused certain statistical methods in their studies, which inappropriately produce hockey stick
shapes in the temperature history. Wegman’s analysis concludes that Mann’s work cannot support claim that
the1990s were the warmest decade of the millennium.

Report: “Our committee believes that the assessments that the decade of the 1990s was the hottest
decade in a millennium and that 1998 was the hottest year in a millennium cannot be supported by
the MBH98/99 analysis. As mentioned earlier in our background section, tree ring proxies are
typically calibrated to remove low frequency variations. The cycle of Medieval Warm Period and
Little Ice Age that was widely recognized in 1990 has disappeared from the MBH98/99 analyses,
thus making possible the hottest decade/hottest year claim. However, the methodology of
MBH98/99 suppresses this low frequency information. The paucity of data in the more remote past
makes the hottest-in-a-millennium claims essentially unverifiable.”

2. A social network analysis revealed that the small community of paleoclimate researchers appear to review
each other’s work, and reuse many of the same data sets, which calls into question the independence of peerreview and temperature reconstructions.

Report: “It is clear that many of the proxies are re-used in most of the papers. It is not surprising that
the papers would obtain similar results and so cannot really claim to be independent verifications.”

3. Although the researchers rely heavily on statistical methods, they do not seem to be interacting with the
statistical community.

Report: “As statisticians, we were struck by the isolation of communities such as the paleoclimate
community that rely heavily on statistical methods, yet do not seem to be interacting with the
mainstream statistical community. The public policy implications of this debate are financially
staggering and yet apparently no independent statistical expertise was sought or used.”

4. Authors of policy-related science assessments should not assess their own work.

Report: “Especially when massive amounts of public monies and human lives are at stake,
academic work should have a more intense level of scrutiny and review. It is especially the case
that authors of policy-related documents like the IPCC report, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific
Basis, should not be the same people as those that constructed the academic papers.”

5. Policy-related climate science should have a more intense level of scrutiny and review involving statisticians.
Federal research should involve interdisciplinary teams to avoid narrowly focused discipline research.

Report: “With clinical trials for drugs and devices to be approved for human use by the FDA, review
and consultation with statisticians is expected. Indeed, it is standard practice to include statisticians
in the application-for-approval process. We judge this to be a good policy when public health and
also when substantial amounts of monies are involved, for example, when there are major policy
decisions to be made based on statistical assessments. In such cases, evaluation by statisticians
should be standard practice. This evaluation phase should be a mandatory part of all grant
applications and funded accordingly.”

6. Federal research should emphasize fundamental understanding of the mechanisms of climate change, and
should focus on interdisciplinary teams to avoid narrowly focused discipline research.

Report: “While the paleoclimate reconstruction has gathered much publicity because it reinforces a
policy agenda, it does not provide insight and understanding of the physical mechanisms of climate
change… What is needed is deeper understanding of the physical mechanisms of climate change.”

Read the full report here: http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142006_Wegman_Report.pdf .

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

13 Worst Things To Happen To the Australian Environment?

July 18, 2006 By jennifer

Melbourne-based think tank the Institute of Public Affairs publishes a quarterly journal of politics and public affairs called ‘Review’.

The last Review devoted 8 pages to the ‘Top 20 books you must read before you die’.

The list included John Stuart Mill ‘On Liberty’ (1859), Ayn Rand ‘Atlas Shrugged’ (1957), Friedrich Hayek ‘The Road to Serfdom’ (1944) and George Orwell ‘Animal Farm’ (1945).

Following the “overwhelming response to our list of books” the Executive Director of the IPA, John Roskam, has suggested the next IPA Review include a list of the “the 13 worst things to happen to Australia” (in a policy sense).

It got me thinking. What are the 13 worst things to happen to the Australian environment … after rabbits?

——————————-
I’m a Senior Fellow at the IPA.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Screaming Gulf Myths: A Comment from Rog

July 17, 2006 By jennifer

Hollywood blockbuster ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ was an apocalyptic tale about the Gulf Stream — the ocean current which circulates warm water from the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere — being disrupted by global warming. In the following guest blog post, Rog summarises the latest research findings from Richard Seager on the Gulf Stream. This research suggests even if the Gulf Stream slows, New York won’t freeze over.

Oh well, I enjoyed the movie.

Rog writes:

There has been considerable speculation that changes to the body of water known as the “Gulf Stream” can alter climates on a local and global scale. Tim Flannery in his book ‘The Weather Makers’ speculates that the sudden drop of five degrees centigrade in Greenland ice cores was due to changes in the flow of the Gulf Stream.

Tim Flannery then goes on to state that changes to the Gulf Stream constitute a “tipping point” in global climate change.

The Pentagon shares Flannery’s views, in a study published in 2003 they warned that changes to the direction of the flow of the Gulf Stream could result in northern latitudes becoming suddenly colder and tropics much warmer leading to floods of desperate immigrants. The study notes that: “The dramatic slowing of the thermohaline circulation is anticipated by some ocean researchers, but the United States is not sufficiently prepared for its effects, timing, or intensity”.

However, in a recent article in the American Scientist, Richard Seager from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory disputes all these scenarios. He claims:

“..temperatures will not drop to ice-age levels, not even to the levels of the Little Ice Age, the relatively cold period that Europe suffered a few centuries ago. The North Atlantic will not freeze over, and English Channel ferries will not have to plow their way through sea ice. A slowdown in thermohaline circulation should bring on a cooling tendency of at most a few degrees across the North Atlantic—one that would most likely be overwhelmed by the warming caused by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. This moderating influence is indeed what the climate models show for the 21st century and what has been stated in reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Instead of creating catastrophe in the North Atlantic region, a slowdown in thermohaline circulation would serve to mitigate the expected anthropogenic warming!”

Note that Richard Seager’s revelation was not founded on any new evidence.

“..All Battisti and I did was put these pieces of evidence together and add in a few more illustrative numerical experiments. Why hadn’t anyone done that before? Why had these collective studies not already led to the demise of claims in the media and scientific papers alike that the Gulf Stream keeps Europe’s climate just this side of glaciation? It seems this particular myth has grown to such a massive size that it exerts a great deal of pull on the minds of otherwise discerning people.

This is not just an academic issue. The play that the doomsday scenario has gotten in the media—even from seemingly reputable outlets such as the British Broadcasting Corporation—could be dismissed as attention-grabbing sensationalism. But at root, it is the ignorance of how regional climates are determined that allows this misinformation to gain such traction.”

————————-

Comment/guest posts welcomed from others readers of this blog, email jennifermarohasy@jennifermarohasy.com .

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

Banking in the Macquarie Marshes: More Photographs & A Map

July 17, 2006 By jennifer

The Macquarie Marshes is a large non-terminal wetland in central western New South Wales (Australia) recognised internationally as an important breeding site for migratory birds. The marshes are degraded and the popular perception is that upstream irrigators are to blame.

Most of marsh lands are privately owned and used for cattle grazing. There is a southern and northern nature reserve which together comprise 12 percent of the Macquarie Marshes and the only areas where grazing is excluded.

In my last blog post on the Macquarie Marshes entitled ‘Three Pressing Issues for the Macquarie Marshes’ I showed how a levy bank running across the southern boundary of the southern nature reserve is stopping water flooding into the nature reserve.

Some water does flow through the southern nature reserve by way of Monkeygar Creek.

Monkeygar Creek then flows through more private land before flowing into the Macquarie River and then the northern nature reserve.

Up stream of the northern nature reserve there are more levy banks and a rock wall across Monkeygar Creek, diverting more water to private grazing land.

It’s all much easier to understand on a map, which is exactly what Chris Hogendyk has sent me today in the following pdf file, CLICK HERE [3 MB file].

The pdf file includes pictures, published for the first time here today, of the illegal system of levy banks upstream of the northern nature reserve.

Chris Hogendyk was mentioned in the Sydney Morning Herald article of two Saturday’s ago entitled ‘Fat Ducks, Fat Cattle – Fat Change’. The article included the following comment:

“Hogandyk is chairman of the 600-strong Macquarie irrigator collective and a man who says saving the marshes is his great passion – “I think this is the one thing in my life where I can really make a difference to history.

… Hogandyk says the marshes still receive an average annual inflow that has only decreased by 15 per cent since Burrendong was built.

“A lot of the marshes were actually lost pre-dam due to grazing and channelisation. We are in danger of losing the marshes because the wrong solutions are being advocated.“

It’s easier to understand on a map and with pictures so CLICK HERE.

Its a 3 MB file, scroll down beyond the map to see the many aerial shots of the levy banks.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Water

The Economics of Ethanol: New American Study

July 17, 2006 By jennifer

Last year the United States produced 3.9 billion gallons of ethanol from corn. Brazil produced 4.2 billion gallons over the same period all from sugar and mollasses.

The United States Department of Agriculture has just published a report entitled ‘The Economic Feasibility of Ethanol Production from Sugar in the United States’ concluding that at the moment it’s not economical to produce ethanol from sugarcane and sugar beet given the price of the two crops, the costs of conversion and the price of gasoline.

The following table from the report shows that the Brazilians are clearly the most efficient produces of ethanol from sugarcane.

Estimated Ethanol Production Costs Tble Blog Gif.GIF

Of course, in a study published last year Cornell University Professors Pimentel and Patzel have argued that producing ethanol and biodiesel from corn and other crops is not worth the energy following an analysis of the energy input-yield ratios of producing ethanol from corn, switch grass and wood biomass as well as for producing biodiesel from soybean and sunflower plants (Natural Resources Research Vol. 14:1, 65-76). I don’t think they included sugarcane in their study.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Energy & Nuclear

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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