Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for September 2005

Wildflowers Follow Rain

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Much of western Queensland received winter rain this year and the last few weeks has apparently seen the country-side transformed with a spectacular display of wildflowers. ABC radio Western Queensland has put together a photo gallery at,

http://www.abc.net.au/westqld/stories/s1448489.htm .

I used to press wildflowers when I was a little girl. One of the best Christmas presents I ever received was ‘Wild Flowers of the World’ with paintings by Barbara Everard and that was for Christmas in 1975. Of course, I still have the book.

On Hurricanes, including Katrina

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Blog site ‘real climate’ has an interesting review of the relationship between hurricanes (frequency and intensity) and global warming with particular reference to Katrina.

By way of introduction:

The key connection is that between sea surface temperatures (we abbreviate this as SST) and the power of hurricanes. Without going into technical details about the dynamics and thermodynamics involved in tropical storms and hurricanes … the basic connection between the two is actually fairly simple: warm water, and the instability in the lower atmosphere that is created by it, is the energy source of hurricanes. This is why they only arise in the tropics and during the season when SSTs are highest (June to November in the tropical North Atlantic).

I particularly noted the paragraph:

It has been asserted (for example, by the NOAA National Hurricane Center) that the recent upturn in hurricane activity is due to a natural cycle, e.g. the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (“AMO”). The new results by Emanuel (Fig. 2) argue against this hypothesis being the sole explanation: the recent increase in SST (at least for September as shown in the Figure) is well outside the range of any past oscillations. Emanuel therefore concludes in his paper that “the large upswing in the last decade is unprecedented, and probably reflects the effect of global warming.” However, caution is always warranted with very new scientific results until they have been thoroughly discussed by the community and either supported or challenged by further analyses. Previous analysis of the AMO and natural oscillation modes in the Atlantic (Delworth and Mann, 2000; Kerr, 2000) suggest that the amplitude of natural SST variations averaged over the tropics is about 0.1-0.2 C, so a swing from the coldest to warmest phase could explain up to ~0.4 C warming.

I wonder what Chris Landsea, the hurricane expert who resigned from the IPCC because of politics and ‘climate change campaigning’, thinks about recent hurricanes Katrina and Denis … and also about Emanuel?

Link to the post at real climate:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181 .

Link to Chris Landsea’s letter of resignation from the IPCC:
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/science_policy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html

Where’s the Market Premium for Non- GM Canola?

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After I wrote about the anti-GM lobby group the ‘Network of Concerned Farmers’ and their misinformation campaign in my column in The Land newspaper (11th August edition, pg. 24), I received letters and emails accusing me of not understanding basic marketing principles. I was told that Australian canola growers are better off because they have more market opportunities, including a potential price premium, because GM canola has been banned in Australia.

(Canada and Argentina, both big Canola producers, grow and export product from mostly GM canola varieties – varieties banned in all canola growing states in Australia.)

I was surprised that no-one contested, or seemed concerned by, my allegation in that column that the Network of Concerned Farmers is neither honest nor consistent in its rhetoric. All the correspondence was focused on perceived ‘market advantage’.

(And why is it that ‘left leaning greenies’ become so focused on ‘market advantage’ when it comes to GM issues?)

I note that Farm Online has a piece today explaining that canola prices appear likely to remain at their current depressed levels or lower, with a large Canadian crop impacting on the market.

It continues:

Currently, canola is trading at around $330/tonne port, but industry analysts are predicting a further drop, saying the Australian market is already trading above international levels.

Many farmers consider $350/t the lowest price at which canola is viable.

In Canada, weather conditions are said to be unlikely to have a negative impact from now on, with most canola already windrowed.

On top of this, industry sources suggested Canada will be looking to get rid of a large amount of last season’s carryover stock, leading to further discounts in prices.

This is bad news for Australian growers, who at the same stage last year were presented with a golden opportunity to lock in prices over $400/t on the back of weather uncertainty in the northern hemisphere.

With Canada set to be able to fill core canola markets, such as Japan and Mexico, canola marketers will be forced to make sure their product becomes cheaper in relation to rival commodities, such as soybeans.

Where is the market concern with GM? Where is the market advantage in not growing GM? Why do Australian state governments continue with their bans on the growing of GM food crops?

It is not only a question of choice, but the environmental advantages of growing GM canola are compelling, see for example, http://www.ipa.org.au/files/news_263.html.

Noongars Knew Best (Part 2)

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On 17th June I posted an essay from David Ward, WA, titled ‘Noongars Knew Best‘ about aboriginal management of the dry forests of the SW of Western Australia.

In this new post, which is a powerpoint presentation from David, four scenarios for bushfire management are explored.

The powerpoint is 850kbs and may only work if you save it first … Download file.

David emailed the powerpoint with a note welcoming feedback/comment/debate.

Interestingly ABC Online reported on Friday that the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service was planning a large scale hazard reduction burn at Berowra Valley Regional Park and in adjoining land west of Hornsby and Hornsby Heights. The four-day burn-off was aimed to “lessen the intensity of wild fires in summer”.

Some Real Data on Organics Please

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I have been repeatedly referred to the ‘New Farm’ website as a source of quality information on organic farming systems.

But I can’t find any actual data at this site and my request for specific data seems to have just got me receiving their newsletter.

I note the site says:

One of the key features of the FST is its scale –small enough to follow rigorous scientific procedures for experimental design but large enough to be worked with regular equipment and to generate results readily applicable to normal farm operations. The level field of mostly shale-y, somewhat compacted silt loam is broken into eight blocks, or replications, with each block containing three plots, 60 ft wide by 300 ft long, and each plot divided lengthwise into three subplots. Eight replications of each of the three cropping systems are randomized across the blocks; while the subplots allow each rotation to be started simultaneously at three points, so the effects of annual weather variations are distributed across different phases of the cropping cycle. Datasets from the FST include weather records; energy and labor inputs; corn, soybean, wheat, and forage yields; weed, crop, and cover crop biomass figures; nutrient analyses of crops and cover crops; soil carbon and nitrogen levels; soil percolation rates; nitrate, phosphate, and pesticide leachate data; soil biodiversity surveys; and economic return evaluations.

Results from the FST have been reported in dozens of scientific papers over the years, and include this core finding: corn and soybean yields are the same across the three systems. Although corn yields were about a third lower in the organic systems during the first four years of the study, in subsequent years the organic systems actually outperformed the conventional system under droughty conditions.

Can someone give me a link or reference to a few of these scientific papers and/or how do I get to see the data from these trials?

Pain for Litte Gain?

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Today’s Courier Mail (pg 57) has a piece titled ‘Rainfall hits five-year low’ explaining how little rain has fallen in Brisbane while noting that the Gold Coast was deluged in June.

It goes on to explain that the Gold Coast City Council wants to lift some of its water restrictions but that Brisbane’s Lord Major is complaining this would jeopardize the increased water restrictions he has planned for Brisbane.

Given the Gold Coast and Brisbane draw their water from different dams, why can’t they have different levels of water restrictions?

The Queensland Premier has been talking up how bad it could be for Brisbane. He was reported in The Australian last week refering to absolute worst case scenarios including that modelling has shown that without rain and without water restrictions, Brisbane would be without water by December 2006. The water restrictions currently being promoted by Brisbane City Council would apparently push this date to February 2007. It hardly seems worth all the pain?