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Jennifer Marohasy

Jennifer Marohasy

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Archives for July 2005

National Tree Day 2005

July 31, 2005 By jennifer

Today is National Tree Day. The day we are meant to plant trees. Two days ago New Scientist published an article titled ‘Planting trees may create deserts’. It went on,

Planting trees can create deserts, lower water tables and drain rivers, rather than filling them, claims a new report supported by the UK government.

Indeed studies in WA have indicated that clearing regrowth in the Perth catchment could increase runoff to dams by 40 gigalitres. This would almost replace the need for the desalination plant?

According to ABC Online,

More than 300,000 green thumbs will descend on sites around the country today to participate in National Tree Day.

Organisers say they have been heartened by an increase of almost one-third in the number of volunteers planting trees and shrubs to restore biodiversity.

Yeah. There are some places that will really benefit from more trees. But let’s also recognise that too many trees can destroy biodiversity.

Michael Duffy makes some reference to this in his piece in yesterday’s SMH titled ‘Carr’s green legacy is a black mark’:

Creating a national park and then, as this Government has done, largely letting “nature take its course”, means this history stops. Gradually the vegetation thickens, the fuel load grows, the animal populations expand, and weeds proliferate. The park becomes a sort of toxic ecological volcano, spewing out fire, kangaroos, weed seeds, and feral animals such as wild dogs into the surrounding countryside. It takes a few decades to reach this point. A lot of our national parks were created in the 1970s and 1980s, which is why these problems started to become acute in the 1990s.
We can expect these problems to occur at Yanga, where (according to the station’s website) the environment of two endangered species – the Australian bittern and the southern bell frog – depends on keeping the red-gum forests open by logging, which will now cease.

Thanks to J.F. Beck at http://rwdb.blogspot.com/2005/07/killer-trees.html for alerting me to the piece in New Scientist.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Plants and Animals

Most Popular

July 31, 2005 By jennifer

It is the last day in July. My web-log seems to work the traffic statistics on a monthly basis. According to these stats the most popular posts for the month were:

First: Government Commits $2.3 Billion for Unknown Quantity of Water
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/000718.html
I suspect this post got most hits because of a link from Crikey.com (thanks Christian Kerr).

Second: Louis Hissink
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/000753.html .
David Vader, rather than Louis, is probably responsible for the popularity of this post.

Third: Global Warming Skeptics in Denial
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/000738.html
Thanks Fletcher Christian. BTW I got some emails asking me who Fletcher really is. I have no idea!

Most populars for other months: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/000671.html

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Clarifying My Position on Climate Change

July 30, 2005 By jennifer

There is ample evidence that the earth’s climate has always changed, that there have been ice-ages and interglacial warm periods and sometimes dramatic shifts in temperature over relatively short periods. This is what I understand by ‘climate change’.

I understand that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change defines ‘climate change’ as that which is attributable directly or indirectly to human activity. I consider this definition to be wrong and subversive and I reject it.

Given that the earth’s climate has changed in the past, it is reasonable to assume that climate will change in the future – whether or not we do anything about rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

Because I have often stated that there will be climate change whether or not we do anything about the increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, I have been accused of not caring, or suggesting we should not try and do something about carbon dioxide emissions.

Indeed Friends of the Earth misrepresent my position in their media release of last Thursday by stating that “Dr Jennifer Marohasy conceded that climate change is inevitable and we should adapt to what’s coming but not reduce greenhouse gas emissions” ( http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0507/S00436.htm ).

I have never said that we should not try and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. I have always said that we should be concerned about increasing carbon dioxide levels. I have suggested investment in new technologies as a better option to Kyoto.

Friends of the Earth accurately quote me: “I actually think that it’s good if we can get beyond this debate of whether increasing carbon dioxide levels are driving more extreme climate events. I think that we need to move beyond that and accept and recognise that whether or not we can reduce carbon dioxide levels, there will be climate change.”

On this basis governments need to develop reactive contingency plans. I do not believe that climate change will necessarily be ‘catastrophic’ – but I do suggest we should prepare for more extreme weather events, as well as the possibility that it could be either drier or wetter in the future.

Furthermore, I suggest that trends in climate change can and should be evaluated using empirical data as well as computer models.

In summary, I am concerned about climate change and I have always been concerned about climate change.

I do acknowledge that carbon dioxide is one of several greenhouse gases. The empirical evidence, however, does not show a clear relationship between increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures. Global temperatures have increased, but only slightly (0.6C over 150 years) and have jumped about from year to year. In contrast the increase in carbon dioxide levels has been significant and linear. Other things are clearly affecting global temperature.

I consider Thursday’s announcement of the new climate pact between the USA, Australia, South Korea, Japan, India and China to be great news (http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200507/s1425101.htm).

Here is a commitment focused on reducing carbon dioxide levels that has a chance of delivering something significant because it includes the emerging superpowers of India and China.

I am amazed that this deal is being critised on the basis that it may deliver very little, when the Bob Browns of the world have always acknowledged Kyoto will deliver very little but they have said it is at least a first step.

Well, why not then consider the ‘Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate’ a second step?

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

Bob Carr’s Legacy: A Chief Scientist with No Science

July 28, 2005 By jennifer

So Bob Carr has resigned as NSW Premier after 10 years at the helm. The last 10 years has seen an increase in the number of environmental activists given key roles within the bureaucracy.

Mr Peter Cosier was working as a WWF activist before being appointed to the positions of Deputy Director General and Chief Scientist in the Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources (DIPNR) in December 2003. I understand Mr Cosier has no formal scientific training or research experience.

Following is the text of the memo from the Director General Jennifer Westacott (who has a BA in Political Science) to DIPNR staff, sent on 19th December 2003:

With the integration of our organisation taking shape and the Government’s natural resources and infrastructure planning reforms gathering momentum, it has become clear that our executive structure also needs to change to meet these growing challenges. Key natural resource and planning initiatives must be linked in an effective fashion to enable us to meet community, business and government expectations.

The co-ordinated leadership of knowledge, information, science and research linked to economic development and social responsibility, is the most effective way of meeting this challenge. For this reason I have created a new position of Deputy Director General to lead this program area.

I am pleased to advise you that approval has been given to the appointment of Mr Peter Cosier to this new position.

Peter is presently the Director of Conservation for WWF Australia and has previously acted as an adviser to both Federal and South Australian Governments on natural resource management, water policy and urban development.

Peter’s professional skills represent a unique combination of science, town planning, public policy and public advocacy at local, state and national levels. Peter has worked in the private and public sectors in both natural resource management and urban and regional planning. This experience at the national and international level has given Peter the opportunity to influence fundamental reforms in natural resource management across Australia.

Most recently Peter has been the convenor of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists and he chaired the negotiation process between NSW Farmers and environment groups to produce the Wentworth Group’s new model for landscape conservation in New South Wales.

As Deputy Director General Peter will undertake the role of Chief Scientist, oversighting the organisation’s research and development program and ensure the relationship of these programs to sustainable economic growth outcomes. Peter will fulfil the role of the organisation’s senior social and economic analyst to ensure the effective balance of economic, community and social imperatives in policy and operations.

Peter will also play a key role in strategic policy advice, development and direction across the organisation. The Centre for Natural Resources and the Social and Economic Impact Group will report to Peter.

Peter will join us in the new year and I’m sure you will provide him with a warm welcome when he arrives.

UPDATE 1ST AUGUST
According to the DIPNR 2003/2004 Annual Report Peter Cosier has a BSc,Dip.URP. and leads the Office
of Knowledge,Science. and Information.
I am seeking further clarification including whether or not he still holds the position of Chief Scientist.

UPDATE 2ND AUGUST, 3.40PM
I have been advised by the DIPNR that Dr John Williams is now the Chief Scientist of DIPNR. I am still seeking clarification of Peter Cosier formal qualifications.

UPDATED 12TH AUGUST
I have just received the following information by email:
Dear Dr Marohasy

Mr Peter Cosier is a Deputy Director General of DIPNR and head of the Office of Knowledge, Science and Information. He has professional qualifications and expertise in science (B.Sc.) majoring in natural resources management and urban and regional planning (Dip. U.R.P.).

Mr Cosier does not hold the title of Chief Scientist. The DIPNR Chief Scientist is Dr John Williams, Chair of the Science and Information Board. Dr Williams is the former Chief of CSIRO Land and Water.

I trust this satisfies your enquiry.

Luise Hogendorn
Executive Assistant to the
Deputy Director General
Office of Knowledge, Science and Information

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Biodiversity for Dummies

July 27, 2005 By jennifer

What is biodiversity and does the non-expert have a right to a say in which bits are conserved?

Following are three views. I have designated them as 1. from the expert, 2. from the technologist, and 3. for the dummy:

1. Biodiveristy for the Expert

…. Let me give you an example of the problem. I was recently involved in a government-funded project that was designed to find out how much the public values biodiversity (and hence how much they would be willing to pay to support nature reserves, or more environmentally friendly farming and so on). The problem with this is that many members of the public have virtually no understanding of what biodiversity is.

So before we could ask them how much they valued it, first we had to tell them what we, as scientists, mean by biodiversity. This is true focus group democracy and it’s crackers, because the value that the public ascribed to biodiversity was simply a reflection of how important we told them it was the minute before.

Democracy is about informed choice, but science is now so vast and complex, that no single individual could ever be well enough informed to make this level of dialogue feasible.

“What arrogance!” I hear you call, in thinking that only scientists are well-informed enough to make such important decisions. But actually that’s not the point: the nonsense of the biodiversity example is that nobody knows the answer, but there might be a correct answer. But we just don’t know enough about biodiversity to know exactly what it does yet.

It’s a bit like me asking you: how much would you pay to stop me throwing away a component from under the bonnet of your car? The answer is, it depends on the component, I guess you would value the spark plugs more highly than the lead to the seat warmer. But you are not going to identify what it is by asking 100 members of the public to guess and then taking the average, it much better to ask one mechanic to find out.

read the complete text here http://education.guardian.co.uk/higher/comment/story/0,9828,1501273,00.html

2. Biodiversity for the Technologist

… for many who equate “nature” with the “Sacred” the idea of biodiversity arising from human intentionality (through biotechnology) verges on blasphemous, despite the fact that existing patterns of biodiversity already reflect human activities, and have done so for a long time.

But there is a high cost to refusing to perceive, or consider the implications of, the possibility that biodiversity is not in crisis, but in transition. If this trend is real, there are many profound consequences, from the religious and the ethical to the severely practical (e.g., how can humans purport to create anthropogenic biodiversity when we have so little knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the systems involved?). Such implications require considered thought and dialog from a number of perspectives, not just the technical.

read the complete text here http://www.greenbiz.com/news/columns_third.cfm?NewsID=27508

3. Biodiversity for Dummies

The following contribution is from a smart guy, David Ward in WA.

Planzen Annimoo Nat

“How often misused words generate misleading thoughts.”
Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher, 1820-1903

A few weeks ago, in our local shopping centre, an uncombed youth shook a tin at me. The tin was labelled Save Our Biodiversity. I asked him what he meant. He was a bit gobsmacked at my geriatric ignorance, then said “Planzen Annimoo Nat”. As an old infantryman, my hearing is not the best, so I did not ask him to say again.

When I got home, I looked in my OED. It said that biodiversity is the “diversity of plant and animal life”. The same dictionary defines diversity as “various kinds”. So we have various kinds of plants and animals, and presumably other life forms, such as fungi and bacteria. How amazing.

However, the five letter word biota includes all life forms, and, being plural, implies that there are various kinds. I wonder why the uncombed one did not save himself seven letters, by labelling his tin Save Our Biota?

As far as I can remember, the word biodiversity was popularised in the early 1990s, by Edward O. Wilson, an American biologist, with a great talent for rhetoric. I believe, however, that Professor Bjorn Lomborg, a statistician, was unimpressed by Professor Wilson’s statistics.

From further searching, it seems Professor Wilson merely shortened the term biological diversity, coined in the 1930s by the English ecologist, Sir Arthur Tansley. In the later 1990s, a Russian academician called Ghilarov entered the fray, claiming a much older history for the concept, and astutely questioning the status of biodiversity as a precise, scientific parameter. He suggested that its liberal use in recent scientific writing is often simply a bid for status or funding. Clearly, my uncombed youth was an example of the latter.

The introduction of the terms genes, species & communities is seen by some as clear evidence that this is a deep scientific debate. Those three levels exist, at least in the human mind, but what about all the other levels? We may suspect an infinite number of nested levels, or scales, of organism and process, each with its own internal diversity, and ever changing. Perhaps like an infinite set of Russian baboushka dolls, but with each doll different, and changed, each time it is unpacked. And what about the myriad interactions between organisms and processes?

For me, the interactions are a matter for hope. There lies endless potential for human enquiry. If we ever understood them all, we might no longer have any intellectual purpose in the world, as suggested by John Horgan in his book, The End of Science. Perhaps I might just as well have asked my scraggly haired friend “How long is a piece of string?”

If anyone can give me a snappy, precise, mathematical definition of biodiversity, or a precise way of measuring it, I shall be delighted. But I suspect that it is a wild goose chase. Please don’t bring poor old Claude Shannon and Norbert Wiener into it. They intended their index for signals, not ecology, and I suspect would turn in their graves if they saw its naive misapplication by biologists.

In the mean time, I will stick, wherever possible, to the shorter, simpler words nature and biota. The word nature has the advantage of including the intangibles, such as silence, beauty, and awe. Various Biodiversity Conservation Acts could, with advantage, be rewritten as Nature Conservation Acts.

The word biodiversity may have its uses, but it is not a precise scientific parameter. It has, for me, been tainted by its dishonest use. Maybe I’ll stick to the colloquial, Planzen Annimoo Nat�

Copyright David Ward 2005.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Plants and Animals

Ok for Nemo, No Good for Bundie

July 27, 2005 By jennifer

I was on ABC Television’s 7.30 Report last night suggesting we move beyond the argument of whether or not rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are contributing to global warming and prepare for climate change anyway.

The program was focused on the release of a report titled ‘Climate change risk and vulnerability – promoting an efficient adaptation response in Australia’

Federal Environment Minister Ian Campbell was on the same program suggesting that global warming is going to destroy the Great Barrier Reef.

The reality is that global warming is OK for Nemo, but no good for Bundie. (Bundie is the name of the polar bear on the Bundaberg Rum advertisements?)

As my friend and colleague Dr Peter Ridd wrote last November at OLO:

If the climate is warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, there could be many plausible consequences, such as melting ice and polar bears not having a home. However, of all the ecosystems in the world, coral reefs are in virtually the best position to come through unscathed. They are certainly not the worlds canary as has sometimes been stated.

Consider the following points

(1) Corals are a tropical species. They like warm water. Most of the species found on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), for example, are also found in areas with much warmer water.

(2) In a couple of hundred million years of existence, corals have survived through hotter, (and more seriously colder) periods.

(3) Coral tissue thickness, often seen as an indicator of coral health, is generally higher for corals in hotter water. Some of the highest tissue thickness’ measured have occur around PNG where the water is far hotter than the GBR.

(4) For all the hype about the bleaching events on the GBR, most of the reef did not bleach and almost all that did bleach has almost fully recovered.

(5) From the statistical viewpoint it is highly improbable that bleaching only started to occur in the last 25 years. Bleaching on the GBR occurs in summers when there is a combination of low cloud cover and light winds. This drives up water temperatures to a degree or two about normal. The water temperature has not increased by a degree over the last 25 years and thus bleaching must have been occurring previously, though quite possibly at a reduced rate. The apparent increase in bleaching is quite possibly due to the very large number of scientists and managers who are now interested in the phenomenon.

(6) Data of coral growth rates from massive corals indicate that there has been a small but significant increase over the last 100 or so years. This is related to the small but significant temperature increase that has occurred in the last hundred or so years. This is not surprising, coral, by and large like hot water.

(7) Some corals clearly are killed by unusually elevated temperature. These are not the long-lived massive corals but rather the plate and staghorn corals. These susceptible corals have the living philosophy of a weed, i.e. live fast and die young. The massives are in for the long haul, they are like the forest giants that live for hundreds or years and must thus be able to withstand the extreme conditions, such as high temperature and cyclones, that will temporarily wipe out there frail but fast growing brethren.

(8) Even the susceptible corals seem to be able to adapt to higher temperatures by replacing the symbiotic plants (zooxanthellae) that are embedded within them with more suitable species.

(9) If we see a sealevel rise due to the thermal expansion of the ocean, we will see a great expansion in the area of the GBR under coral. This is because the reef flats, which now have almost no coral due to the FALL in sealevel of the last 5000 years, will be covered even by the lowest spring tides. The presently dead reef flats, which are a very large proportion of the reef (perhaps the majority), will come alive. So though rising sealevel might be bad if you live in a small South Pacific Island nation, it will be good for coral.

I have a very high regard for the hardiness of corals. The GBR was borne at a time of rapidly rising sealevel, very high turbidity and very rapidly rising temperature. Presently, they live in areas of extreme temperature (40 degree), in muddy embayments and in regions continuously affected by runoff. Provided they are not grossly overfished, as has happened in the Caribbean, they are very adaptable systems.

My message is that if you must make an argument for the Kyoto Protocol, then using coral reefs is a poor, and implausible choice. In the final analysis, corals like hot water, polar bears do not. Corals will do badly in an ice age, polar bears and alpine meadows can suffer in a warm period.

Some links:

The Report ‘Climate Change: Risk and Vulnerability: Promoting an Efficient Adaptation Response in Australia’ http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/risk-vulnerability.html

Summary of ABC Television’s 7.30 report
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2005/s1423001.htm.
The detail of the Minster’s comments on the Great Barrier Reef are not in the summary transcript.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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To get in touch with Jennifer call 0418873222 or international call +61418873222.

Email: jennifermarohasy at gmail.com

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